Macro
Currencies
- Dollar is looking strong
- There is a strong sell-off in Euro
- Not much professional activity on top and bottom of these trades
- Need to monitor the start of the week performance to see if we are going higher or lower
- Consistent decline in the performance of Yen and Yield curve control over the past week
General markets
- We’ve stopped rate hikes
- When you look at NASDAQ or crypto, there was a bit of sell-off but not much of a significant activity
High-Level Crypto Stats
- We are currently in a range for BTC between 26-27k
- Increase in BTC longs and shorts over the last few hours and days signifying that we are starting to see more leverage than less
- XRP, LINK, WLD looks interesting
- Within these markets, there are still performers - MKR and LINK looks interesting in terms of price momentum. AAVE also looks good in terms of price momentum. On a longer time period (90D) it was negative and it flipped positive recently on a shorter timeframe.
- Bitcoin on exchanges is declining
Bull and bear case for macro
- A user is trying to understand both the bull and bear cases for macro
- The odds are closer to 50/50 because user has been studying both sides of the bear and bull
- Because of the asymmetry on the upside, it makes more sense to have long exposure, whether it be via calls or selling puts or crypto
- There are compelling arguments from both sides:
- Bull case:
- Everything changed in 2009, the central banks colluded as a whole to take on debt via the central bank balance sheet, meaning stocks will never be allowed to crash
- We all universally agree that we are going higher, it’s just short term losses that we are experiencing due to market corrections, etc.
- Mike Novogratz happens to believe that they will approve the ETF in October
- Another point is that we seem to have bottomed during FTX and worse case scenario, we will see FTX levels again, and we will have to reassess how the markets react
- Most of the news we get so far in terms of institutions and regulation seems pretty bullish
- Bull case:
General
Mountain Protocol
- Mountain Protocol is the issuer of USDM, the first permissionless yield-bearing stablecoin.
Chainlink Protocol
- Riding the RWA narrative
- They can bring in institutional capital at a large scale
- Some narratives include CCIP and full staking program launch
- There has been an influx in terms of new users over the week as well as fresh wallet accumulation and SM accumulation
- Might be some news about LINK during SmartCon next week
Aura Finance
- Launched a new project that they are building called “Project Flywheel”
- The team mentioned that they will be launching a token and will airdrop the tokens to Aura finance holders
- Snapshot is not taken yet
Solana
- User is concerned about the SOL holdings of FTX and Alameda and the potential sell-offs that could hit the open market.
NFTfi
- NFTfi stands out as a category that no one seems to be paying attention to
- Blur/ X2Y2/ and some other contenders are falling in price.
Cream Finance
- User was curious why CREAM pumped so much
- CREAM pumped 100% because machibigbrother relocked his stash after his 4-year expiry Member
- Be careful with causation and correlation
- The founder could’ve manipulated the news to pump his own token
Silo Finance
- TVL has been going up
- Lending market with isolated markets like Sushiswap’s Kashi
- Growth has been strong over the last 2 months
Gaming
- Things are starting to move on the gaming front because it takes a considerable time to develop games
- The approach was to release stuff in modules
- Most of the projects that the member has invested in are starting to release modules
- Interestied in real-games but also not neglecting the Ponzi-related games
- NOR is an interesting gaming project that a member is observing
- Cryptounicorn discussions - game launched last year; token performed quite poorly; product works and there’s a lot of effort behind the scenes.