This report reflects the discussions and views shared during our RA meeting. These are personal opinions of the team members and should not be interpreted as financial or trading advice. Readers should conduct their own research and consult with financial advisors before making any investment decisions.

🟠 The team largely derisked in the previous months and is patiently timing their re-entries. Overall, sentiment leans relatively neutral in the short term and the team is awaiting for the market to show clear signs of consolidation before re-entering. One analyst is buying the dip on value tokens with low risk sizing.

Market Outlook & Positioning Shifts

1. BTC Bias and Institutional Flows

Several analysts bought BTC into the recent dip to 86K this week and are holding spot; leverage remains close to zero. Outside BTC, the desk is tracking alts potential, but with more discrimination on entries:

• Aurelie sits in cash and is waiting to buy again. Was hoping to re-enter but the key level of 91k has not held. Observing some signs of capitulations now.
• Jake is neutral at the moment but is slightly bullish into the end of Q1 2026, continues to DCA slowly into BTC and eye up certain DeFi plays like HYPE. Otherwise, he added more to his equity porfolio, mainly large tech stocks like GOOG and uranium ETFs. Looking to add robotics exposure to the portfolio potentially.
• Niklas read the recent dip as constructive and starting to DCA back to high conviction plays (BTC, ETH, SOL, PENDLE).
• Nicolai
  

2. Stablecoin Yields and Farms as Defensive Base

Stablecoin yields continue to be home for much of the sidelined capital. Pendle PTs and selective farms are yielding ~6%+ APR. Allocations remain tactical, skewed to “blue-chip” venues like Pendle. Niklas is also using Ether.fi vaults (ETH, BTC) alongside PTs. Part of the “dry powder” was deployed on the last wipeout; remaining balances favor dependable farms while waiting for cleaner risk-on signals.

3. Altcoin Rotation: DeFi, Institutions, and New Launches

The team is mainly looking at BTC, as most alt/BTC pairs continue to make new lows. When BTC looks to be consolidating near a potential bottom, the analysts have expressed interest in altcoin valuations when the time is right, particularly on protocols that generate meaningful revenue and get potential upside to institutional adoption. The team has been keeping a close eye on key defi protocols like AAVE, MetaDAO, HYPE, MORPHO amongst others. No urgency to enter but some of which are on their radar. Otherwise, the team is waiting on more clear trading conditions before entering into altcoin rotation to avoid “knife catching” as BTC settles into a range.

💰 Crypto Positioning Summary:

Remain short term bearish: compound stablecoin yields and buy back high-conviction setups on a consolidation. One analyst is at a minimum-risk allocation pending better signals; others are slightly bearish but also disciplined on entries, sizing, and quality.

Token positions held by team members over $10k:

• BTC, ETH, SOL, USDC, USDT, Pendle PTs, AION, HYPE, sUSDe

🟢 New Positions and Ideas:

• Aurelie: We did not hold 91k in BTC price. Waiting for some of the exhuberance in the equity valuations to cool down, which might bring a more attractive entry point for crypto.
• Jake: Sitting on my core positions and waiting for a dip on BTC to enter potential setups. Otherwise, slowly DCAing into BTC.
• Niklas: No changes this week, feeling the recent dip was what he was looking to see before getting slightly bullish.
• Nicolai: Might be looking more into revenue generating protocols to see where oppertunities may lie. One that I plan to look closer at is MET (Meteora).

Quick Market Snapshot

Analyst Views and Positioning

Aurelie

🔹 Positioning: Cut my portfolio allocation to crypto from 25% to <5% on September 25th, 2025. I am waiting for some consolidation. I thought 91k would hold, but this has not been the case. The new developments since last week are signs of early capitulation visible in ETH and BTC ETF flows and option markets. This will likely represent an opportunity to re-enter long at lower prices.

🔹 Fundamentals:

• Markets are pricing in fewer than two 25-basis-point rate cuts by the end of 2026, implying a Fed funds rate of around 3.2%. Expectations for rate cuts have largely been priced out, and the OIS market is even forecasting rate hikes over the next five years, with a terminal rate close to 3.8%.
• These hawkish shifts have already been absorbed by Bitcoin. After failing to hold the $91,000 support level, BTC has developed a negative correlation with U.S. equities, a rare dynamic, as equities continue to rally without Bitcoin following. With equity valuations looking increasingly stretched, a correction in stocks could further deteriorate Bitcoin’s price action.
• Narrative-wise, investors and traders appear to be pricing out the U.S. “crypto mojo.” The CLARITY Act remains stuck in the Senate, while Republicans are prioritising purchasing-power-focused legislation ahead of the midterms, reducing near-term regulatory momentum for crypto.

🔹 Positionning:

• Positioning shows signs of capitulation. Options markets are pricing only around a 30% probability that Bitcoin revisits its all-time high by year-end, while we are seeing streaks of significant Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF outflows.

🔹 Action: Sitting on my lowest-bound allocation to crypto, patiently waiting for some technical price consolidation in the BTC price + new positive catalysts (fiscal impulse in Q2 2026 + potentially dovish Fed Chair nomination)+ our barometer to turn neutral from risk-off to add back to crypto. A meaningful upside catalyst would be progress on U.S. crypto regulation. Passage of the CLARITY Act through the Senate, despite political and industry divisions, would likely improve sentiment and reintroduce a crypto-specific tailwind.

Our Barometer turned risk-off on 17/10/2025:

In 2026, it oscillated between risk-off and neutral:

Jake

🔹 Positioning: BTC has finally ranged for some time and now things are looking more constructive. I am sitting on my DCAs and will look to enter on a move down, not looking to enter in this new range. Once we get confirmation on the daily above 94.5k for BTC, i will get more interested. Same with on the downside, if we close below the 84.5k mark, ill begin to enter with more size. Otherwise, I continue to sit on my core positions and farming stables in Pendle PTs.

• Pendle PTs (~5% APR)

🔹 Fundamentals: I am neutral short term and waiting for BTC to stop ranging before taking on more exposure. My core thesis is mainly in BTC and DeFi apps that generate meaningful revenues and have narratives that align with continued institutional adoption. Since Novemeber, BTC has largely traded within a

Niklas

🔹 Positioning: Slowly back to accumulating high conviction plays (BTC, ETH, SOL, PENDLE). Looking at MORPHO at lower prices (sub 1$), but unlocks are likely to drive prices lower in the near-term. Also looking at SYRUP around 20c.

Farms:

• Pendle PTs (~10% APR)
• Ether.fi vaults for ETH and BTC

🔹 Fundamentals: Slowly DCA-ing but mostly relying on stink bids to get back into the market.

Nicolai

🔹 Positioning: Have had DCA orders for quite some time during the market downturn, and slowly building some size again after getting burned. Largest alt position is still AION.

🔹 Fundamentals: Liquidity seems to slowly be coming back and so does risk appetite. I admittedly underestimated market conditions in the past few months, and expect that it is time to follow macro structure a bit more clearly and also look into equities vs crypto. Is there a way to gauge how many funds made in crypto switched over, that potentially could come back etc. 🔹 Action: Continue with small DCA orders across tokens until I am happy with the allocation and move towards more automated trading. I have found that I tend to perform best when actively trading and being glued to the screen, but as live changes, so does conditions. As such, I find it to be the best course of action to move towards automated trading based on indicators and likewise following wallets that I handpick as a first thing.