On the Turn

Good Morning and Happy Monday from Cumberland APAC! With BTC up 30% in the past two weeks, it’s pretty fair to say that the market dynamic has changed significantly, so we wanted to take a big step back. “The Turn” is a term often thrown around on trading desks, signifying the moment when the dynamic fully flips. Unfortunately, it’s usually a term used in hindsight (and even more unfortunately, it’s usually a trader explaining to their boss that they missed the turn…); it’s difficult to tell if the market is turning in the moment, or if it’s just a headfake. It’s hard to tell if the move of the past two weeks is false optimism, or the beginning of a rally that will last the next eighteen months. However, it’s been a...