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Good Morning from Cumberland APAC! Despite BTC pushing towards recent highs, implied vols remain muted, with 1m IV at just 37%. There are a few reasons for this:

  • BTC stubbornly remains in its fairly tight 2-month range of 100k-110k for the time being;
  • We saw fairly strong selling of short dated options (1-2wk expiries) early in the week as geo-political risks eased. This selling continue today, pushing out to 1m expiries;
  • BTC has generally proven to be resilient in the face of extreme volatility in other more mature markets – like energy. This maturation should continue to push implied vol structurally lower over time; and
  • ETF inflows remain strong, with consistent demand over the last 10 days, despite the weekend drawdown....