War Room Call Notes
Community Reports Channel
- BlackRock Outlook
- Key Takeaways:
- Production constraints are fueling inflation and macro volatility. Central banks cannot solve these constraints. That leaves them raising rates and engineering recessions to fight inflation.
- We don’t think equities are fully priced for recession. But we stand ready to turn positive via our assessment of the market’s risk sentiment or how much economic damage is in the price.
- The lure of fixed income is strong as surging yields mean bonds finally offer income. Yet long-dated bonds face challenges, we believe, making us prefer short-term bonds and high-grade credit.
- We see central banks pausing rate hike campaigns once the damage becomes clearer. Long-term drivers of the new regime will keep inflation persistently higher, in our view.
- We expect views to change more frequently than in the past. Our stance heading into 2023 is broadly risk-off, with a preference for income over equities and long-term bonds.
- Our strategic views are positioned for the new regime. We think even strategic portfolios need to be more dynamic – and getting the asset mix wrong can be even more costly.
- Aging populations are negative for economic growth. Production capacity will grow less quickly in the future as an ever-larger share of the population is past retirement age and not working.
- This is the most fraught geopolitical environment since WWII, in our view. The world is splitting up into competing blocks that pursue self-reliance.
- We track the transition to net-zero carbon emissions as we track any other driver of investment risks and opportunities.
- Private markets are not immune to macro volatility. Yet for strategic investors, asset classes such as infrastructure could provide a way to play into structural trends
- Key Takeaways:
War Room Channel
- Had a recent price drop, what was the cause?
- A smart money wallet started transferring DYDX to Binance. Historically, this has led to price dumps
- Safety module turned off so a lot of people unstaking from safety module and moving their tokens to CEXs
- A member is accumulating DYDX
- This dump makes it easier for them to accumulate more
Key Takeaways from The Block 2023 Outlook
BTC Hash Power and Miners
- Has anyone looked at how much BTC hash power could be lost if bankrupt miners permanently leave the market?
- Probably nothing, bitmain/bitdeer are all waiting on the sidelines to buy those cheap mining farms and they still have millions of rigs sitting idle right now without power.
- Leveraged players and newcomer miners always get wiped out during the bear
- A member thinks the two public miners that will survive are RIOT and CLSK because they have the cheapest electricity and almost no debt.
- US GDP QoQ Final Actual 3.2% vs forecasted 2.9%
- The Nasdaq down 3%
- A member forgot to roll over his short futures position
- Another member has been using CFDs on IG Markets to short Nasdaq so they never roll off/expire
- -4% now. Is this ‘Santa Rally’ in the room with us now?
- Again VIX pokes its head below 20, you short and print. Keeps working
- The CME futures have expiries and the stock index futures are cash settled when they expire. TDAmeritrade doesn't do perpetual futures, unfortunately
- Q: Another member sees these on his IB workstation.. so is there no cost for these contracts other than the differential in price vs spot? Eg if Nasdaq is 11000 and March futures are 11100 differential is 100 points.. so you would get paid 100 points to short and hold till expiry?
- A: Yeah, no funding rate. Just a term structure, which usually doesn't have much of a curve to it for stock futures
- ‘NFTs eat IP and tradfi e.g. your house as an NFT which you can raise a mortgage against'?
- It is an extremely powerful theme but just feels LOOKS, XMON nowhere near and really that leaves MATIC, FLOW, IMX? Ideally looking for infra/tooling but a member can't think of anything obvious
- Member went short yesterday and profited today
- A member put a bunch of short asks on HNT at 2.40 to 2.44 when price was 2.04
- Alphanonce thread on upcoming narratives
- Interactions were spiking on Nansen
- Anyone who farmed on y2k, You can lock your y2k tokens for vlY2K with rewards front loaded in the first epoch. To avail of this you need to lock before 00:00UTC on 23rd December OR claim your y2k tokens and sell
- Down 96% so far this year
- The Block article
- A member read more about them and found that they have solid investors during Seed. $6M seed round led by a16z crypto, with participation from top investors including Cygni Capital, Kima Ventures, and Tribe Capital.
- Seems they are on the early stage, as per their Telegram no devnet yet. Will try not to miss this one for potential airdrops/Nodes.
2022 Crypto In Review
2022 Nansen Swag
- More alpha members getting swag