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NFT Indicators - (How) Can We Predict The NFT Market?
Niklas Polk
Key Takeaways
14 min read
  • Volume is good for immediate changes and catching very short term momentum (~hours) and not good for usage as mid-term (~days - weeks) indicator.
    • Owner structure is good for estimating the maturity of newer collections and not good for usage on bluechip collections as the structure tends to find some sort of equilibrium.
    • Listing structure is good for estimating extreme greed in the NFT market when used on bluechip collections. The steep “crashes” in January, May and late July were all preceded by periods of close to no listings around floor price for most bluechip collections. It is not good for non-extreme sentiments and more gradual changes in the market.


It's undeniable that the NFT space offers lucrative opportunities. However, it's also possible to lose money. To maximize profits, it's essential to understand the market dynamics and know when to invest and when to exit, especially in uncertain and volatile conditions.

This report aims to provide on-chain tools to aid in timing NFT market bets. We explore possible on-chain indicators and predictive metrics for swings in the overall NFT market. Additionally, we examine connections between on-chain data and floor price movements.

The report is structured along the following steps:

  • Establishing how we understand “the NFT market” and looking at floor price movement correlation within the top NFT collections
  • Looking at...