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NFT Market Updates: Looking at the Macro & Micro Metrics of the NFT Market
Sandra Leow
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TLDR

  • Slight consolidation in NFT trading volumes across OpenSea
  • Slight resurgence in the NFT market as seen in the NFT-500 Index points
  • Social NFTs are leading the NFT market year-to-date (Jan-March 2022)
  • Mint sales are gravely underperforming compared to secondary sales

Top News

NFT Market Overview

  • There was a slight resurgence in the NFT market as seen in the NFT-500 Index points.
  • Social NFTs are leading the NFT market year-to-date (covered by Nansen’s NFT research analyst, Louisa)

    “Social NFTs account for an estimated market capitalization of USD 9.5 billion (3.57 million ETH), which is approximately 79% of the NFT market capitalization. The index’s performance highlights the benefits of diversification when investing in Social NFTs such as profile pictures. For Social NFTs, we observed that an NFTs’ brand recognition and perceived establishment are important factors driving its performance. Year-to-date, the Social-100 index gained 93.7% when denominated in ETH, and a 31.8% increase when denominated in USD."

For more information regarding the NFT indexes, you can check them out on the Nansen dashboard here.

  • Although the general health of the NFT market is still unstable and ranging at low volumes (compared to mid February), the 7D market overview presents a positive signal, with floor prices of renowned collections (such as BAYC, MAYC, CryptoPunks, etc) trending at relatively high levels - which is evident in the primarily “green” signals in the floor price in the past 7 days.
  • Secondary sales today are similar to the volume traded in Nov-Dec.
  • Mint sales, however, have been averaging at 100-400 ETH per day, compared to the NFT mayhem period, which resulted in 1000-2000 ETH of mint volume per day.
  • The returning buyers and first-time buyers show a similar downward trend.
  • It is with no surprise that the current market conditions present a difficult period for users to mint/flip for quick profits. Despite rather unprofitable market conditions for mints/secondary buys, it might be useful for buyers to accumulate NFTs for projects with high conviction in preparation for the next wave of the NFT market.

This Week’s Highlights

  • BAYC tops the charts this week, as floor price rose from 65 ETH to 92 ETH (from our NFT weekly recap report #6). BAYC announced their upcoming metaverse land sale and APE token. The team is planning to raise $500m in additional revenue by selling virtual land in the metaverse.

The Block received a deck that appears to show that Yuga labs brought in nearly $130m in revenue during 2021 and is being circulated by investors to gain additional funding. This information affirms the rumors around their goal of a $5b valuation on the table.

Update: an unconfirmed slide deck appears to outlay the entire plan for 2022 including:

  • January: BAYC vs. MAYC Game
  • March: APE Token and Metaverse 1-100k Land Sale (Projected $180m revenue)
  • March: Merch Drop
  • May: Airdropping of Kodas (Mintable NFTs) ($2.3m Revenue)
  • May: Trezor Hunt
  • June: APE Fest (+ Merch) (Confirmed)
  • August: The trial of Jimmy the Monkey
  • August: Metaverse 101k-200k Land Sale ($190m)
  • September: BAYC >> MechaDog ($20m revenue)
  • September: Ultimate Mecha Ape ($50m revenue)
  • October: Mecha Dog vs. Mecha Monkey Invasion (P2E Blockchain Game
  • December: Merch Drop
  • After the announcement, we saw that the prices of MAYC, BAYC, and Meebits went up. Interestingly, the price of CryptoPunks stayed the same. Although it is unclear as to why this is the case, it is worth noting that CryptoPunks and BAYC went through a period of rivalry in the past.
  • GNSS is a Procedural and Generative Art project, where each being is unique and exclusive, deployed 5 days ago. This project gained massive traction since launch and the NFTs are revealing tomorrow. Although this is not a typical NFT PFP project, the amount of thought and detail in the project is impressive. They are all generated and it’s impossible to reproduce them in the same way. The artist behind the project is also currently working for RTFKT Studios.
  • CyberBrokers was also mentioned in our previous NFT weekly recap report last week. The floor price increased by .5 ETH from a week ago, now at 2.9 ETH per NFT.
  • Dour Darcels is a collection of 10k moody frens from the world of Darcel Disappoints. The collection launched 12 days ago and is still gaining traction with its volume traded and averaging floor price since.

NFT Macro Cycle: Some Thoughts

Twitter
Source: Twitter
  • It is evident that we are currently in the “death” phase of the NFT macro cycle
  • In the chart above, the NFT mayhem was in Jan-Feb where the PFP narrative was in full force, 10’s of derivatives of the common blue-chip themes was common. Flippers could easily make a quick 2-3x in minutes or even hours.
  • Ultimately, the market will recover, and we will survive somehow and enjoy the fruits of the next bull market, but it also does require a shift in mentality from the bull run that we experienced in Nov-Dec earlier last year or even the peak in February just a month ago.
  • Just some words that resonated with me: "Don't get stuck in the market dynamics you (sometimes subconsciously) learned during the bull market. However, learn the new market dynamics and keep developing yourself (your network, fundamental research, etc.)"

Tools for further research

NFT aggregators

  • Gem
    • Gem recently launched on January 20.
    • Gem allows users to explore and collect NFTs across all the marketplaces on a single interface, giving you a birds-eye view of the market - ensuring you never miss out on a good deal.
  • Genie
    • Batch buy & list NFTs across all major marketplaces in a single transaction. Save time & gas.
    • Genie was technically the first NFT aggregator in the NFT space.

      Due diligence for minting

  • Nansen’s guide here

Wallet management + tracking

  • NFTBank.ai
    • This platform is a leading platform for tracking your NFT inventory
  • Zapper
    • Zapper is a good tool for tracking an overview of your NFT portfolio

NFT Marketplaces

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Disclosure: The authors of this content and members of Nansen may be participating or invested in some of the protocols or tokens mentioned herein. The foregoing statement acts as a disclosure of potential conflicts of interest and is not a recommendation to purchase or invest in any token or participate in any protocol. Nansen does not recommend any particular course of action in relation to any token or protocol. The content herein is meant purely for educational and informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as financial, investment, legal, tax or any other professional or other advice. None of the content and information herein is presented to induce or to attempt to induce any reader or other person to buy, sell or hold any token or participate in any protocol or enter into, or offer to enter into, any agreement for or with a view to buying or selling any token or participating in any protocol. Statements made herein (including statements of opinion, if any) are wholly generic and not tailored to take into account the personal needs and unique circumstances of any reader or any other person. Readers are strongly urged to exercise caution and have regard to their own personal needs and circumstances before making any decision to buy or sell any token or participate in any protocol. Observations and views expressed herein may be changed by Nansen at any time without notice. Nansen accepts no liability whatsoever for any losses or liabilities arising from the use of or reliance on any of this content.