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NFT Market Updates: Nansen's Price Prediction Tool
Sandra Leow
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Nansen's Price Prediction Tool

The price prediction tool offers insights into certain collections on how each NFT is priced. The tool can be accessed via NFT Paradise or under each individual collection in NFT God Mode.

The average prediction error is measured by the average difference between the sale price and the prediction price over the last 30 days. The average calibration error is measured by the range of average error between high- and low-priced NFTs. This could mean that for higher percentages, rarer items in that collection sell for prices similar to common items.

Do note that the tool is still in its beta stage and is not available for every collection on the market. NFT prices are also affected by other factors such as macro conditions and sentiments which cannot be tracked. Thus, the predicted value only serves as a guide and should not be used as an accurate representation of the NFT price.

Case Study 1: Pudgy Penguins

Pudgy Penguins has a 25% prediction and calibration error with a medium conviction level based on Nansen data. Looking at the top 10 NFTs filtered by prediction difference, we can see that the current price of most Pudgys is similar to its predicted value, with the exception of ID #2265.

Zooming in on that NFT, we can see that its top impactful trait would be ‘Fish Orange’ whereby only 0.5% of the collection has that trait. It contributed largely to how the predicted price was calculated which explains why it's in the top range among all NFTs in the collection.

Using the NFT Item Profiler, you will be able to see the estimated price history for the NFT as well as the range of estimated prices for all items in the collection.

Besides that, playing around with the dashboard for each individual collection could help to spot good deals on the market. For example, filtering by ‘On Sale Since’ could allow you to quickly spot an NFT that has just been listed and is priced below its predicted value. Thus, you can snap up a good deal before anyone else.

Case study 2: Mutant Ape Yacht Club (MAYC)

MAYC has an average prediction error of 11% and an average calibration error of 16% with a medium conviction level. Looking at the top NFTs ranked by highest to lowest prediction difference (ETH), we can see that most of the NFTs range at around a 0.5 to 1 prediction difference (ETH).

One of the NFTs that stands out in particular is NFT ID #19149, with a prediction difference of 6 ETH, and a 43% prediction difference. At this time of writing, the current price of the NFT is 14 ETH with a predicted value of 20 ETH.

Let’s zoom in on the traits and rarities for NFT ID #19149, we can see that the most impactful trait is the Earring: M2 Gold Hoop, where only 1% of the collection has that trait. Other impactful traits include the Eyes: M2 Coins and Mouth: M2 Bored Cigarette.

Step-by-step instructions to locate the price prediction tool

  1. Head over to NFT Paradise and locate the Price Prediction tool on the far right of the tab
  1. Conviction levels determine a specific collection’s overall confidence level based on prediction and calibration errors. Typically you can see the conviction level ranging from high -> medium -> low.
  2. Click on any of the collections that you are interested in to zoom in further.
  3. Use the item profiler in Nansen to see the price estimate history for the NFT as well as the floor price.
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Disclosure: The authors of this content and members of Nansen may be participating or invested in some of the protocols or tokens mentioned herein. The foregoing statement acts as a disclosure of potential conflicts of interest and is not a recommendation to purchase or invest in any token or participate in any protocol. Nansen does not recommend any particular course of action in relation to any token or protocol. The content herein is meant purely for educational and informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as financial, investment, legal, tax or any other professional or other advice. None of the content and information herein is presented to induce or to attempt to induce any reader or other person to buy, sell or hold any token or participate in any protocol or enter into, or offer to enter into, any agreement for or with a view to buying or selling any token or participating in any protocol. Statements made herein (including statements of opinion, if any) are wholly generic and not tailored to take into account the personal needs and unique circumstances of any reader or any other person. Readers are strongly urged to exercise caution and have regard to their own personal needs and circumstances before making any decision to buy or sell any token or participate in any protocol. Observations and views expressed herein may be changed by Nansen at any time without notice. Nansen accepts no liability whatsoever for any losses or liabilities arising from the use of or reliance on any of this content.