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NFT Market Updates: Washtrading Filters, Karafuru & Pixelmon
Sandra Leow
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Introduction

This week's NFT recap spans across different metrics such as 7D top collections (via. highest trading volumes), 7D smart buys and sells, Opensea vs. LooksRare marketplace, 7 potentially smart plays, upcoming mints, and takeaways.

Our weekly recap aims to provide a more comprehensive overview of the NFT market and the general sentiment of top-performing collections.

Note: Nansen’s NFT dashboards now come loaded with a wash-trade filter! Users can now see the organic volume of each NFT collection on LooksRare. Wash trading can be disruptive for those wanting to grasp accurate market activity. In the charts below, the left image shows Meebit trades over the last 7 days without a wash trading filter, and the right image shows their trades with the wash trading filter. To see the filter in action, hop over to NFT paradise on Nansen’s dashboard.

Top News

  • Opensea flipped Uniswap as #1 used product on Ethereum
  • Coachella festival passes are sold as NFTs
  • Disney is making NFT hires
  • Rarible X Polygon integration
  • 0xProject’s multi-chain NFT swaps is live
  • Charged Particles v2 launching this month

7D NFT Market Overview

This week’s highlights

The 7D NFT Market Overview covers an outlook of market activity over the past 7-days. In the chart below, there are collections ranging from newer ones to more historic collections that were deployed 200+ days ago.

In Top 5, we have these projects on the list:

PFP projects have taken the NFT market by storm. Based on this week’s top-performing project by total volume traded (ETH), we can observe that the projects are mainly PFP-based. Some initial observations:

  • PFP projects are the easiest types of projects to break through, especially for individuals who are new to crypto.
  • For instance, Twitter recently launched hexagon-shaped NFT profile photos. It is a new feature that allows NFT holders to showcase their NFTs in the form of profile photos. It is clear that our social media presence and identity have become an integral role. Our outlook on social media has become increasingly important, and here is where PFPs will have a big role. Moreover, communities can form through having similar NFTs as part of one’s profile photo. PFP NFTs are generally easier to adopt compared to other sectors in crypto, where individuals only need to have minimal knowledge of crypto.
  • Avatar projects like Karafuru, Clone X, and Azuki seem to be dominating the PFP scene with more projects on a similar front on the rise.
  • NFT aggregators like gem.xyz makes it a seamless experience for users to sweep floors of collection and move floor prices in one, single transaction.

Daily Active Users on OpenSea

Key terms:

New users = users making a transaction on OpenSea for the first time Retained users = returning addresses who have previously made at least 1 transaction

The daily active users on OpenSea remain relatively healthy. On February 8, 2022, the number of retained users stood at 49,260 and the number of new users was at 6,434, respectively.

Opensea vs. LooksRare (Trading Volume)

The chart above compares the trading volume between OpenSea & LooksRare (11 Jan-7 Feb 2022). We can observe that the trading volume in LooksRare appears much more volatile compared to Opensea’s. The volatility in volume traded on LooksRare can be due to two possible reasons: 1) LooksRare is still a new platform and the user base is yet to stabilize, and 2) the trading reward schedule (24-hour interval) may have influenced users’ behavior around how they time their trades. Comparatively, Opensea’s trading volume appears to be relatively healthy and far more realistic.

Smart Buys vs. Smart Sells Breakdown

Nansen Smart Money Labels

There are four types of NFT smart money labels on Nansen:

  • Smart NFT Trader
    • top addresses in realized NFT profits + top addresses based on our internal trader score metric.
  • Smart NFT hodler
    • hodlers are the strongest of hands who can hold on to winning NFTs despite going through turbulence of possible massive losses.
  • Smart NFT early adopters
    • top addresses that have invested in selected blue-chip projects before a specific date and are still holding.
  • Smart NFT minters- top addresses that have minted and realized significant profits across multiple collections in the last 60 days.

If you are curious to know more, visit our Wallet Label Guide!

Note that 7D smart buy and smart sell breakdown is stacked by label types (smart NFT early adopter, smart NFT hodler, smart NFT trader, and smart NFT minter). Also worth noting is that in some cases, 1 wallet may overlap 2 labels.

When we dive into smart buys vs. smart sells breakdown on a 7D interval, this can be a good indicator to observe collections that are attracting long-term holders vs. collections that are a clear pump-and-dump scheme.

Here, in the 7D smart buys and sells breakdown chart, we can see that:

  • Strong hodls: Karafuru
  • Mid hodls: Super Geisha, Cool Pets
  • Strong sells: Hypebears, Fighter, Hero, Art Blocks, Lives of Asuna

Let’s highlight some of the collections from “strong hodls” to “strong sells”:

Karafuru

Karafuru is a collection of 5,555 Japanese-style PFPs. The collection combines the classic PFP style with a metaverse-like roadmap.

There seems to be a steady price movement for this collection, although it’s been a few days post-mint. The team has decided to reveal the NFTs on February 10, 2022, hence, this could be a viable explanation for the “strong hodlers” and minimal price movement.

Pixelmon

In the 7D smart buys and smart sells breakdown charts below, we can see that Pixelmon has generated initial “hype” and traction around its project. However, Pixelmon also has one of the highest 7D smart sell breakdown, with its smart sell far exceeding its smart buys. A few initial thoughts:

  • Pixelmon sold 8,100 NFTs at a price of 3 ETH
  • They raised ~$70m and claim to be building a game that isn’t closed to being finished
  • Team is anon
  • They have an active discord and huge twitter following

Furthermore, Pixelmon NFT’s average price and volume is a sounding indicator that its average volume traded and price immediately plunged post-mint. The current floor price for Pixelmon at the time of writing is 1.14 ETH. It is with no doubt that this project has successfully raised a huge amount of capital ~$70m and claims that they are in the process of building a game. It is unclear how the roadmap will flesh out or how the team plans to utilize the ~70m worth of capital, but only time will tell.

24 Hour Smart Mints

This chart is a 24-hour overview of smart mints. Smart NFT Minters are top addresses that have minted and realized significant profits across multiple collections in the last 60 days. A 24-hour smart mints segment is crucial as these projects are still relatively new (some projects like Meta Angels have just launched their pre-mint sales), hence, there is a relatively low barrier to entry and more research can be conducted before deciding to mint or buy from secondary marketplaces.

In Top 5, we have:

  • Cozy Penguin (39 smart minters)
  • CryptoNobles (35 smart minters)
  • 888 Inner Circle - Pink Realm (28 smart minters)
  • Pixelmon (20 smart minters)
  • Censored (19 smart minters)

7 Potentially Interesting Plays to Watch

Note that these projects are projects that are highly raved about, and/or, projects that might be interesting plays, but only time will tell.

Disclaimer: Twitter followers can also be easily fabricated. It is becoming an increasingly common tactic for newer projects that are launching. However, we also consider other aspects such as community, possible narratives, etc.

Invisible Friends is a project by Markus Magnusson, dropping in mid-February (date is not disclosed publicly). The project has generated massive hype in the crypto twitter space.

They currently have a closed discord and their launch date is not announced despite their launch in mid/ end “February”.

Twitter followers: 439k Category: NFT PFP

Tasty Bones is another highly raved upon project, with a 5,000 collection.

For a project with 239k followers on Twitter, plenty of initial hype, and active discord members.

Category: NFT PFP

Antonym aims to be a “phygital” lifestyle brand that bridges the gap between digital collectibles and physical designer goods.

Category: Fashion NFT

DAPE is a PFP NFT project with the mission of branching out to fashion and real-world utility.

Category: Fashion NFT

Sekira is hopping on the anime-style trend with their art inspired by Azuki NFT.

Imaginary Ones is a mega-hyped project in the crypto twitter space.

Imaginary Ones is a 3D art with an initial drop of 8888 unique NFTs on the Ethereum network. ‍ Created by Cmttat, a renowned artist based in Singapore. The team behind Imaginary Ones has more than a decade of experience working with clients like Nike, Apple, Samsung, Heineken, Spotify, L'oreal, etc.

Category: PFP NFT

Shizuka NFT is an anime-style avatar PFP project.

Category: PFP NFT

Useful Tools to Track Upcoming Mints

  • Nansen’s ‘Mint Master’ Tool
  • Rarity Tools
  • ChaChang Daily NFT Tracker + Floor Tracker
  • Omelette Pool (subscription-based)
  • Ape O’ Clock
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