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Market Update: Of Policy Risk & Staking Going Mainstream
Aurelie Barthere
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Key Takeaways
9 min read
  • Overall, the US macro is holding up, but is vulnerable to another bout of policy uncertainty (fiscal and/ or trade). If our downside risk scenario materializes, BTC might not hold its 99.5k support.
  • In our main scenario of muddle-through in the US - China negotiation, and watering down of the section 899 of the “Big Beautiful Bill”, BTC will probably retest its all-time-high, driven by positive regulatory momentum.
  • Staking currencies with the largest pool of assets are likely to benefit from the latest SEC guidance on staking and so are ETF manufacturers.

In this note we review the state and momentum of the macroeconomic and regulatory/ policy developments that matter for crypto markets, what is likely priced by crypto and traditional assets, the technical price picture for the main crypto assets, and where we are likely to go from here in terms of price action.

Macro: A lagging picture?

The “R” word is less and less present on consumers’ minds and in the projections of analysts. On April 9, recession fears peaked with the 90-day truce announcement on reciprocal tariffs. As a result, in May we have seen US growth re-accelerate close to its long-term trend, 2%. This is mainly driven by the two pillars of the US economy: private consumption and business investment. The pace of...