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Despite escalating tensions in the Middle East, BTC is yet to show signs of full-blown panic. Following initial jitters triggered by Iran-Israel headlines last Friday, the benchmark cryptocurrency has since clawed back losses, recovering from weekly lows of 102.8k to 107k. A similar rebound unfolded across major large-cap tokens and US equity futures.

BTC’s resilient price action appears underpinned by continued institutional accumulation. Notably, Metaplanet and Strategy have persisted in buying the dip, while spot BTC ETFs recorded their seventh consecutive week of inflows. The market seems to have rediscovered its footing, particularly after BTC held above the key psychological threshold of 100k despite the initial shock. Crucially, Friday’s modest 3% pullback paled in comparison to April last year, when BTC fell more than 8% amid similar Iran-Israel turmoil.

More broadly, markets appear remarkably composed in the face of rising geopolitical risk. BTC frontend implied vols remain below 40, while the VIX hovers near 20. Both levels are historically subdued given the backdrop. US Treasuries and a swath of Asian government bonds have seen inflows, underscoring that markets have not fully pivoted into risk-off mode just yet.

Still, undercurrents of caution persist. A potential Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could spark a surge in oil prices, while further escalation or direct US military involvement could severely disrupt global risk assets.

Ironically, some argue that these very risks could prove structurally bullish for BTC. With the asset trading just under 6% off its all-time highs, recent price behaviour reinforces the narrative that BTC adoption is being fuelled by macro dislocation, rising sovereign debt burdens, and geopolitical fragility.

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Weekly Market Positioning Update – [w/c June 9th]
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Disclosure: The authors of this content and members of Nansen may be participating or invested in some of the protocols or tokens mentioned herein. The foregoing statement acts as a disclosure of potential conflicts of interest and is not a recommendation to purchase or invest in any token or participate in any protocol. Nansen does not recommend any particular course of action in relation to any token or protocol. The content herein is meant purely for educational and informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as financial, investment, legal, tax or any other professional or other advice. None of the content and information herein is presented to induce or to attempt to induce any reader or other person to buy, sell or hold any token or participate in any protocol or enter into, or offer to enter into, any agreement for or with a view to buying or selling any token or participating in any protocol. Statements made herein (including statements of opinion, if any) are wholly generic and not tailored to take into account the personal needs and unique circumstances of any reader or any other person. Readers are strongly urged to exercise caution and have regard to their own personal needs and circumstances before making any decision to buy or sell any token or participate in any protocol. Observations and views expressed herein may be changed by Nansen at any time without notice. Nansen accepts no liability whatsoever for any losses or liabilities arising from the use of or reliance on any of this content.