Loader
logologo
Alpha Zone
Analysts
My Reading List
Log in
DeFiGaming & MetaverseInfrastructureMarketsNFTs
QCP Asia Colour
QCP Capital
main

Vol on Watch: Oil Steady, Crypto on Ice

Global markets are treading water as participants digest geopolitical headlines and calibrate risk ahead of a potential volatility resurgence.

Gold, which initially surged in response to the Israeli strike on June 13th, has since retraced. This softens the safe-haven bid even as WTI crude holds firm near the $75 mark. Energy markets remain tightly tethered to the Israel–Iran conflict, with speculation around possible U.S. military involvement continuing to simmer beneath the surface. The USD weakened modestly as markets inched toward pricing in a heightened likelihood of direct U.S. engagement in the region within the next 48 hours. This prompted a measured rotation out of the greenback.

In digital assets, BTC continues to trade sideways. Price action remains muted despite rising macro uncertainty and the familiar din of political noise from Trump’s social media machine. Investor sentiment remains on pause, and positioning suggests that market participants are biding their time for a more decisive catalyst.

Yet derivatives markets reveal a more cautious undertone.

Risk reversals in both BTC and ETH continue to show a preference for downside protection across June and September tenors. This suggests that long holders are actively hedging spot exposure and preparing for potential drawdowns.

Notably, ETH June at-the-money implied volatility has dipped below September, suggesting a compression in near-term idiosyncratic risk premium. This may reflect a pullback from event-driven hedges or profit-taking on elevated short-dated vols. It stands in contrast to BTC, where the front-end still commands a mild vol premium.

For now, the crypto market remains coiled. The next headline, macro shift or tail event could be the spark that rekindles the volatility of yesteryear.

You might also like
Article cover
QCP Asia Colour
Article cover
QCP Asia Colour
Article cover
QCP Asia Colour
Disclosure: The authors of this content and members of Nansen may be participating or invested in some of the protocols or tokens mentioned herein. The foregoing statement acts as a disclosure of potential conflicts of interest and is not a recommendation to purchase or invest in any token or participate in any protocol. Nansen does not recommend any particular course of action in relation to any token or protocol. The content herein is meant purely for educational and informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as financial, investment, legal, tax or any other professional or other advice. None of the content and information herein is presented to induce or to attempt to induce any reader or other person to buy, sell or hold any token or participate in any protocol or enter into, or offer to enter into, any agreement for or with a view to buying or selling any token or participating in any protocol. Statements made herein (including statements of opinion, if any) are wholly generic and not tailored to take into account the personal needs and unique circumstances of any reader or any other person. Readers are strongly urged to exercise caution and have regard to their own personal needs and circumstances before making any decision to buy or sell any token or participate in any protocol. Observations and views expressed herein may be changed by Nansen at any time without notice. Nansen accepts no liability whatsoever for any losses or liabilities arising from the use of or reliance on any of this content.