Make Volatility Great Again?

BTC briefly dipped below $100k on Sunday, falling 6% to a low of $98.2k. This marked its lowest print since breaching the $100k psychological level on 8 May. The selloff extended across major altcoins, catalyzed by Iran’s threat to shut the Strait of Hormuz, a move that would severely disrupt global oil flows.

BTC’s reclaim of $100k this morning suggests that the weekend drawdown was macro-driven, with investors turning to crypto as a hedge while awaiting equity futures to open. The move was amplified by thin liquidity conditions, triggering over $1 billion in liquidations across the market.

While Iran has vowed retaliation, markets appear to be discounting the likelihood of a major escalation. The US is pressuring China diplomatically to rein in Tehran, and that geopolitical backchanneling seems to be having a calming effect. Put skew remains elevated through September, but the strong spot bounce and compression in frontend vols signal that investors are largely dismissing broader contagion risks for now.

The same tone is echoed in traditional markets. US stock futures, oil and gold initially reacted to the headlines, but have since retraced to Friday levels. This suggests that investors are interpreting the situation as a regional flashpoint rather than a global risk event.

Still, BTC is consolidating near the $100k level even after a flush in leveraged longs. This makes the next few sessions particularly important. The market remains at an inflection point, with digital assets straddling the line between risk-on momentum and risk-off defensiveness amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.

Key Events to Watch Mon (23 Jun): US PMI Tue (24 Jun): Fed Chair Powell Speech Wed (25 Jun): Fed Chair Powell Speech Thu (26 Jun): US GDP and Unemployment Data Fri (27 Jun): US Core PCE