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Volatility across most asset classes continues to drift lower, as markets enter a lull amid a dearth of meaningful news flow and macroeconomic data. The news cycle remains relentless, yet markets appear increasingly inured to negative developments, brushing off headlines that might once have sparked more significant reactions.

U.S. bond yields have eased following last week’s fiscal stir sparked by the so-called “big, beautiful bill.” Nevertheless, the debt-to-GDP ratio remains perched above 120%, with the new bill projected to tack on another $3.8 trillion to the national debt.

Yields on the 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasuries have slipped below 4.5% and 5.0% respectively, while Japan’s 30-year JGB yield has retreated under 3%. These levels are still historically elevated. However, the immediate risks have abated for now.

All eyes are on the upcoming U.S. Treasury auctions in June for the 10-, 20-, and 30-year bonds. Meanwhile, Japan’s Ministry of Finance is set to issue 40-year JGBs today, with the 30-year tranche scheduled for next week. The MOF is acutely aware of the market’s reluctance to absorb long-dated paper and appears poised to tweak issuance strategies to dampen volatility at the long end of the curve.

Ironically, we now find ourselves in a Goldilocks zone: recent data prints remain largely unaffected by the tariff policy introduced last month. It will take time for companies and consumers to adjust pricing and spending patterns. Only in Q3 are we likely to see these dynamics reflected in the numbers. The Federal Reserve seems to concur, choosing to discount near-term data unless the economy deteriorates sharply.

And while “what happens in Vegas stays in Vegas,” this time, policymakers hope otherwise. Senator Lummis’s wide-ranging remarks on stablecoins and the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve have rekindled hopes for substantive crypto policy movement. Since the inauguration, progress on digital asset initiatives has been tepid. The Conference may offer the jolt needed to revive White House engagement.

Trump Media, for its part, is reportedly planning to raise $2.5 billion and join the ranks of corporates building a Bitcoin Reserve. If momentum builds out of the conference, we could see more firms follow the lead of Strategy and Metaplanet, offering a fresh structural bid in the market.

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