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QCP Options Vol-cast
QCP Capital

Two weeks ago, we speculated that big spot ETF inflows could see BTC break all-time highs by the end of March. After two consecutive +5% days with BTC reaching close to $58,000, could we get there even sooner?

What drove this rally? This rally is quite simply demand-driven with spot ETF volumes crossing $3.2b and net inflows of $520m. The quick jump in price has then triggered short liquidations and a speculative buying frenzy with funding rates skyrocketing on native exchanges and even longer-end futures trading up to +16% over spot.

Vol market reactions The initial option market reaction was surprisingly muted. Players who were long calls were actively taking profit and we also saw demand for downside gamma. This led to the...