It’s been a rollercoaster start to the year for vol trading.
What’s happened in BTC vols?
We went into the BTC spot ETF approval period with a high vol environment where the 7-day realized was at 75%. Post-ETF, it has tumbled down to 40% today.
The ETF approval high of 49,100 was quickly faded and BTC settled into a 39-43k range. Price rallies were sold down by GBTC outflows and dips were absorbed by inflows into the other ETFs and general accumulation ahead of the halving.
This caused front end vols to drop to 40% and the BTC vol curve to go from downward sloping to upward sloping today (Chart 1).
What’s next for BTC?
We have the quadrennial halving in April/May, which has been bullish historically.