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Research Weekly: Crypto Xmas and 2025
Aurelie Barthere
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Key Takeaways
  • The crypto markets’ consolidation post-US-elections has been shallow so far, with a “healthy” rotation across tokens outperforming
  • December’s seasonality should be positive for crypto; there is a higher risk of more substantial corrections if policies are too slow to meet expectations (after the new US administration takes over on January 20)
  • Institutional demand is key to feeding the bull market in 2025. Key themes: tokenization, crypto as part of the default asset allocation, new crypto products generating more “fees” for financial intermediaries

In this note, we review the potential near-term and mid-term developments in economics, politics, and markets, that can influence crypto asset returns.

Macro

“US exceptionalism” summarizes the next few months to one year. US growth has accelerated vs the rest of the world in 2024 (see growth nowcasters by region below) and this gap is likely to widen in 2025. The two largest economies of the Eurozone, Germany and France, are mired in political difficulties linked to limited fiscal room while domestic growth is slowing. In China, macro data are looking up, and future fiscal measures might help compensate for the continuing geopolitical and trade war with the US.

In 2025, the Trump administration’s policies will...