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Research Weekly: New Macro Scenarios and BTC price projections
Aurelie Barthere
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Key Takeaways
3 min read
  • The macro picture has become quite heterogeneous across regions and sectors. The US, its growth, and policy dynamics are the most relevant for crypto...
  • ... and US growth continues to outpace the rest of the world, tracking at 2.5% - 3%
  • We are increasing our "soft" or "no landing" scenario (the most favorable for crypto) to 65% (from 55% last July)
  • Our scenario-weighted BTC price estimate now stands at 70k (from 65k in July)
  • Two tokens stand out according to our indicators: Uniswap and Shiba

In this short note, we review the latest developments in macro and markets and revisit our scenario analysis for BTC's future returns.

The macro picture has become quite heterogeneous across regions and sectors. The US, its growth, and policy dynamics are the most relevant for crypto. We will therefore quickly summarize global developments before zooming in on the US.

Global growth is tracking at 2.5% YoY in 2024 which is below potential. There is one region of weakness, the Eurozone, and one sector of softness, manufacturing.

In the Eurozone private consumption and investment growth has been stuck close to zero. Markets have started to price more rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB), which led to the recent weakness in the...