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Research Weekly: Trump & Crypto plus timely market questions
Aurelie Barthere
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Key Takeaways
7 min read
  • The Fed is likely to cut the policy rate to 3.25%-3.5% by 2025 as US growth is tracking at 3%, which is still positive crypto
  • There are areas of weakness emerging in global demand for semiconductors ex-AI, exacerbated by the US’s sanctions on exports to China
  • MAGA has the closest statistical relation with the probability of a Trump victory, with DOGE a potential second option

In this note, we tackle the timely macro and market questions that popped up this week, which can influence crypto asset prices in the short-to-medium term.

Macro Pulse

Disinflation in the Eurozone and the UK, and faster growth in the US (strong and accelerating retail sales) are the key macro messages of the week.

The European Central Bank (ECB) eased its policy rate by 25bps to 3.25%. During the press conference, President Lagarde sounded somewhat dovish, highlighting that all the indicators pointed towards disinflation (indeed, there have been a series of softer inflation prints, see below).

Money markets are starting to price an ECB policy rate below 2% (5+ rate cuts of 25bps) by the end of 2025. This has...