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DeFiGaming & MetaverseInfrastructureMarketsNFTs
Research Weekly Sept. 10, 2024
Aurelie Barthere
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Key Takeaways
4 min read
  • The macroeconomic data are on the weaker side, making it ambiguous if we are simply transitioning to a slower pace of US and global growth (e.g. 2% for the US) or sliding into recession
  • 225bps of Fed rate cuts are already anticipated by markets by 2026, whether it is enough to stabilize risk assets and crypto is uncertain
  • The US presidential election will likely keep a lid on crypto prices till November, although this week’s debate could see Harris’s lead in the polls fade somewhat, potentially helping crypto prices retrace some of their recent underperformance (BTC is back at 57k as we write)
  • Net flows on-chain and in BTC+ETH ETFs are negative for the second week in a row, which has been a rare occurrence this year, and indicates downbeat sentiment

Macro: Weaker dynamic, still ok levels

The macroeconomic data have come up on the weaker side. This softness centers on 1) Manufacturing activity in the Eurozone, China, and the US, and 2) The US labor market.

The global manufacturing PMI has printed below 50 (contraction threshold). At the micro level, companies have also reported slower orders not only from China but also from the US. Anecdotally, some Swiss watch manufacturers have put employees and factories on “temporary unemployment” because of disappointing orders from the US and China. Meanwhile, Germany is sinking further into the manufacturing recession it entered in 2022.

On the bright side, Services are doing ok, and US consumers continue to spend at a...