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AAVE, NFTs, and Market Predictions
Shaun Ko
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Key Takeaways
6 min read
  • DeFi and AAVE: Discussions centered on AAVE's potential for growth with regulatory clarity, its market condition ties, and its risk due to regulatory vulnerabilities.
  • Market Predictions: Mixed views on market bottoming, the strength of altcoins against Bitcoin, and potential risks from a stock market downturn affecting crypto.
  • Farming and Infinex: Tips on maximizing farming rewards on Infinex and views on farming liquidity for potential tokens.
  • Tapioca DAO and EIGEN: Overview of Tapioca DAO's omnichain money market project and EIGEN perpetuals trading on Coinbase with significant market cap.
  • NFTs and Smart Money: Analysis of NFTs held by Smart Money, with high interest in Azuki, Pudgy Penguins, and Fidenza/Chromie collections, and healthy holder diversification for some collections.
Source: Nansen Query

Community Channels

War Room

Discussion on AAVE

  • Members discussed the potential of AAVE in the event of regulatory clarity for DeFi; it was suggested that AAVE, along with UNI and MKR, could experience significant growth.
  • One member expressed uncertainty about AAVE due to its potential vulnerability to regulations.
  • AAVE was described as an index bet on crypto as a whole, with its performance tied to market conditions.
  • Members discussed a conversation with a DeFi fund manager about AAVE, who believed that the downside for AAVE was extremely limited.

Discussion on Market State and Predictions

  • A member attempted to call a bottom for the market, citing the strength of altcoins against Bitcoin over two consecutive weeks.
  • Another member stated having no clear read on the market state, noting the contrast between several bullish catalysts and poor price action.
  • The fear of a potential stock market dump pulling down crypto was expressed.
  • A member admitted to having clocked out and focusing on farming, keeping their bags on the side and intending to do little in terms of rotating.

Discussion on Farming and Infinex

  • A member advised those farming Infinex to open their crates as soon as possible to gain boosts and earn crates faster.
  • In response to a question about farming on Infinex, a member explained that speedrun was farming for GP, which they assumed would impact any potential token. They also added that it now seemed more like farming liquidity with some rewards.

Discussion on DeFi and MKR

  • A member expressed belief in the future of DeFi, stating it had to get going again at some point due to its significance.
  • There was a request for good threads or reports on MKR, with the member expressing interest in MKR for Trump administration regulatory clarity and potential ETH ETF.
  • Concerns were raised about AAVE's lack of value accretion to the token and minimal underlying revenue generation.

Tokens

Tapioca DAO Overview

  • Tapioca DAO is a project focused on creating an omnichain money market, powered by the LayerZero cross-chain messaging protocol.
  • It aims to provide a chain-agnostic user experience, allowing users to mint, borrow, lend, and leverage assets across multiple blockchain networks.

EIGEN Perpetuals on Coinbase

  • Members discussed the live trading of EIGEN perpetuals on Coinbase.
  • The total supply of EIGEN at launch is 1,673,646,668.28466 tokens, leading to a valuation around 10b market cap.

Cryptocurrency Market Analysis

  • Members discussed Mechanism Capital realizing profits on TRUMP, being the top sellers in the last 24hrs. They still hold $740k.
  • Sigil Fund withdrew $716k in IMX from Binance 2 days ago, they've been accumulating IMX in the past 7 months, now holding $2.3M in IMX.
  • Discussion around market participants not appreciating the significance of a potential loss of a 4-month range on Bitcoin. The closest parallel we can draw is to that of the range of May 2021.

Cryptocurrency Market Predictions

  • Discussion around the possibility of the market bottoming out, with a member's timing being highlighted as impeccable.
  • There was also a prediction of a potential bear trap in the crypto market, with a possibility of crypto front running the SPX dump.

Airdrops

Airdrop Participation

  • Members discussed the potential of making money through airdrops, even with just one or two wallets.
  • There were questions about the continued viability of airdrops and how to choose which ones to participate in.

Mantle Post Blast

Raydium Swap

  • A member shared their experience with a Raydium swap, mentioning that two months of farming resulted in around 100k points.
  • The member shared a link to the Raydium swap

Movement Labs

  • A member shared a link to a tweet about Movement Labs, a company that recently raised $40M.
  • The tweet details Movement Labs as the first Move EVM layer 2 on Ethereum and highlights their ongoing airdrop campaign.

NFTs and Gaming

NFTs held by Smart Money

  • Members discussed the number of NFTs held by Smart Money across multiple collections. Azuki Elementals/Beanz showed some of the highest numbers in comparison to other Blue Chips such as Punks, BAYC, MAYC, Otherdeed, Pudgy Penguins, Lil Pudgy, and Milady.
  • Nakamigos was also noted for having a significant number of NFTs held by Smart Money.
  • The Azuki parent collection was said to have only 309 Smart Money holds at the time of the chat.
  • The entire Yuga ecosystem was noted to have been in a bear market since 2022, and there were concerns about Azuki's potential due to this.
  • Andrew Kang, zgw, and Dingaling were identified as the biggest holders of Azuki, collectively holding 1/3 of the Smart Money supply.
  • Big Brain Holdings and Kronos were noted as notable holders for Pudgy.
  • It was mentioned that many whales are splitting their holdings into multiple wallets following the ZKSync airdrop.
  • Pudgy's holder diversification was considered healthy, with less concentration than Azuki.

NFT Collections

  • There was a discussion about the potential of various NFT collections like Fidenza, Punk, and Chromie. One member expressed bullish sentiments for Fidenza/Chromie and was considering selling a few Lil Pudgy to get some Chromies.
  • There were mixed feelings about Doodles due to their founders launching a coin that rugged, though the art and potential web2 collaborations were considered somewhat bullish.
  • Some members had recently bought a Doodle and two Squiggles.
  • There was a discussion regarding the Poopie's post on X about $poop being airdropped to holders of Doodles, Genboxes, Dooplicators, and others.
  • The "Pudgy-alignment" was considered bullish.
  • There was a mention of a gold tophat being near the floor, with one member considering buying and relisting it.
  • One member pointed out that Opensea pro is buggy, leading to false information about undervalued items.

Degen Bets

Discussion on FROG

  • Members discussed the performance of FROG, which had seen a 14x increase from the original entry point at the time of the chat. One member mentioned considering selling due to FROG making up approximately 5% of their portfolio and the current market uncertainty.
  • It was noted that the number of smart followers of FROG had increased from 2 to 18, indicating a growing interest in the coin.

Discussion on $13k Market Cap

  • There was a discussion about a member's decision to invest in a $13k market cap, which turned out to be a successful move as it ran 50x.

Mention of Kamala Harris

  • One member queried if there was a coin named after Kamala Harris due to the significant chatter around her.

Discussion on SPURDO and DOGEVERSE

  • A member mentioned SPURDO, which had been gaining activity and shared a link to its status on Nansen.
  • They also mentioned DOGEVERSE as another bottom play that was working out, providing a link to its status on Nansen.
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War Room - 20 November 2023
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Disclosure: The authors of this content and members of Nansen may be participating or invested in some of the protocols or tokens mentioned herein. The foregoing statement acts as a disclosure of potential conflicts of interest and is not a recommendation to purchase or invest in any token or participate in any protocol. Nansen does not recommend any particular course of action in relation to any token or protocol. The content herein is meant purely for educational and informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as financial, investment, legal, tax or any other professional or other advice. None of the content and information herein is presented to induce or to attempt to induce any reader or other person to buy, sell or hold any token or participate in any protocol or enter into, or offer to enter into, any agreement for or with a view to buying or selling any token or participating in any protocol. Statements made herein (including statements of opinion, if any) are wholly generic and not tailored to take into account the personal needs and unique circumstances of any reader or any other person. Readers are strongly urged to exercise caution and have regard to their own personal needs and circumstances before making any decision to buy or sell any token or participate in any protocol. Observations and views expressed herein may be changed by Nansen at any time without notice. Nansen accepts no liability whatsoever for any losses or liabilities arising from the use of or reliance on any of this content.