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  • Overnight, BTC struggled to break above the 67k resistance for the third time over the last month.
  • Will spot prices get stuck in a range again and we see vols drop to 40% level?
  • We don’t think so. Our view is that prices break out of this range. These are our reasons:
  1. BTC led the rally on unleveraged spot demand as the funding rate was relatively flat.
  2. We are starting to see genuine institutional and sovereign adoption.
  3. It is now 28 days past the BTC halving and post-halving dip might be done.
  4. Huge demand for December call options indicating significant bullishness into year-end.

The Trade: We had multiple sharp v-shape recoveries whenever Bitcoin dipped under 60k, which clearly makes it a buy-the-dip zone. Accumulators allow you to buy BTC below 60k support and it is an ideal time to deploy with back-end BTC vols significantly higher. (BTC Spot Ref: 65,300)

BTC Accumulator (32 weeks, 27 Dec 24) Buy BTC spot at 18% discount (53.5k) every week as long as spot price is under 75k.

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