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  • Overnight, BTC struggled to break above the 67k resistance for the third time over the last month.
  • Will spot prices get stuck in a range again and we see vols drop to 40% level?
  • We don’t think so. Our view is that prices break out of this range. These are our reasons:
  1. BTC led the rally on unleveraged spot demand as the funding rate was relatively flat.
  2. We are starting to see genuine institutional and sovereign adoption.
  3. It is now 28 days past the BTC halving and post-halving dip might be done.
  4. Huge demand for December call options indicating significant bullishness into year-end.

The Trade: We had multiple sharp v-shape recoveries whenever Bitcoin dipped under 60k, which clearly makes it a buy-the-dip zone. Accumulators allow you to buy BTC below 60k support and it is an ideal time to deploy with back-end BTC vols significantly higher. (BTC Spot Ref: 65,300)

BTC Accumulator (32 weeks, 27 Dec 24) Buy BTC spot at 18% discount (53.5k) every week as long as spot price is under 75k.

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Disclosure: The authors of this content and members of Nansen may be participating or invested in some of the protocols or tokens mentioned herein. The foregoing statement acts as a disclosure of potential conflicts of interest and is not a recommendation to purchase or invest in any token or participate in any protocol. Nansen does not recommend any particular course of action in relation to any token or protocol. The content herein is meant purely for educational and informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as financial, investment, legal, tax or any other professional or other advice. None of the content and information herein is presented to induce or to attempt to induce any reader or other person to buy, sell or hold any token or participate in any protocol or enter into, or offer to enter into, any agreement for or with a view to buying or selling any token or participating in any protocol. Statements made herein (including statements of opinion, if any) are wholly generic and not tailored to take into account the personal needs and unique circumstances of any reader or any other person. Readers are strongly urged to exercise caution and have regard to their own personal needs and circumstances before making any decision to buy or sell any token or participate in any protocol. Observations and views expressed herein may be changed by Nansen at any time without notice. Nansen accepts no liability whatsoever for any losses or liabilities arising from the use of or reliance on any of this content.