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The last Fed meeting of 2024 happens tonight and despite the festive Christmas season, we see little cause for celebration. The Fed is expected to cut rates by 25bps at this meeting and release the final dot plot of the year.

We anticipate tonight’s statement and dot plot to carry a slightly hawkish tone, reflecting US inflation stabilizing above the Fed’s 2% target and a robust labor market. Expect the statement to remain non-committal for the path of rate cuts in 2025, emphasizing the difficulties of accelerating rate reductions. Meanwhile, the dot plot is expected to telegraph 3 cuts for 2025.

While we don’t foresee the Fed meeting carrying much weight, liquidity across all markets have slowly decreased. This could result in gappy moves, potentially leading to large liquidations.

The technical outlook for BTC also appears cautious, with BTC printing an evening star on the daily timeframe and exhibiting bearish divergences.

Don’t get shaken out of your positions if a drop occurs. With 2025 poised to be a potentially bullish year for crypto, particularly with Trump in office, staying the course may prove beneficial.

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