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BTC rose above 97k since our last commentary but has since retraced to hover above 95k. This pullback coincided with reports of the U.S. government moving 10k BTC (approximately $963 million at the time of transfer) linked to Silk Road. The front-end vol curve has shifted further toward puts over calls following the move.

On the institutional demand side, optimism persists. Spot ETFs recorded another $350 million in inflows yesterday, while MARA Holdings has followed MicroStrategy’s lead, acquiring $618 million worth of BTC over the past two months.

Other crypto mining companies like Riot Platform are increasingly likely to halt BTC sales, with some considering expanding holdings. Coupled with news of Microsoft contemplating a BTC purchase, this underscores growing corporate interest in Bitcoin as a reserve asset.

Meanwhile, equities continue to set new records, with the S&P 500 marking its 54th all-time high this year. Several Fed members have signaled an inclination to lower borrowing costs at the next meeting, albeit contingent on forthcoming economic data—an announcement likely to add volatility around the event window.

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