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The highly anticipated US CPI print came in line with expectations. The market is now pricing in 62.5% for 25bps cut compared to 47.5% before CPI announcement.

The softer CPI numbers resulted in an immediate knee jerk reaction in equities and crypto.

The crypto rally was short lived with the market selling off on the back of U.S. transferring 10K BTC to Coinbase Prime and Jump offloading 17,000 ETH.

As anticipated, BTC and ETH front-end vols sold off post-CPI, dropping around 10 vols. Risk reversals also dipped further to -8 and -6 vols for ETH and BTC respectively. This indicates that the options market is now anticipating more downside due to the fresh supply.

Trade Idea

In this thin and highly leveraged environment, any price movement will be amplified. A Digital Win-Range strategy offers an attractive risk-reward trade.

BTC Win-Range (Top Side)

  • Get paid 4x if BTC fixes within the range.
  • Payout: 4x
  • Maturity: 27 SEP 24
  • Range: 65k to 70k

BTC Win-Range (Down Side)

  • Get paid 5x if BTC fixes within the range.
  • Payout: 5x
  • Maturity: 27 SEP 24
  • Range: 50k to 45k

Spot Ref: 58,700 BTCUSD

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Disclosure: The authors of this content and members of Nansen may be participating or invested in some of the protocols or tokens mentioned herein. The foregoing statement acts as a disclosure of potential conflicts of interest and is not a recommendation to purchase or invest in any token or participate in any protocol. Nansen does not recommend any particular course of action in relation to any token or protocol. The content herein is meant purely for educational and informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as financial, investment, legal, tax or any other professional or other advice. None of the content and information herein is presented to induce or to attempt to induce any reader or other person to buy, sell or hold any token or participate in any protocol or enter into, or offer to enter into, any agreement for or with a view to buying or selling any token or participating in any protocol. Statements made herein (including statements of opinion, if any) are wholly generic and not tailored to take into account the personal needs and unique circumstances of any reader or any other person. Readers are strongly urged to exercise caution and have regard to their own personal needs and circumstances before making any decision to buy or sell any token or participate in any protocol. Observations and views expressed herein may be changed by Nansen at any time without notice. Nansen accepts no liability whatsoever for any losses or liabilities arising from the use of or reliance on any of this content.