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Tonight’s CPI release has captured everyone’s attention. The market anticipates a 70% chance of a rate cut in September. This optimism has been reflected in the continued rally in equities but has yet to be priced into the crypto market.

BTC front-end volatility increased by 5 points this morning, with risk reversals favoring the topside, signaling the market’s anticipation ofpotential topside volatility.

Yesterday, the German government transferred 10k BTC to exchanges and market makers. The wallet now holds only 15k BTC out of the 50k it originally held in mid-June, suggesting a possible easing of supply pressure.

Trade Idea With the perceived reduction in supply, a softer CPI print could serve as the catalyst to break out of this range, especially bolstered by the upcoming launch of ETH spot ETF trading next week. We identify a compelling risk-reward opportunity on the upside through Digitals.

ETH 26-Jul Call DIGI
Strike: 4k
Payout: 10x (of prems spent if spot fixes at-or-above strike at expiry)

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