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On the back of euphoria from Trump’s speech over the weekend, BTC tested $70K before US equities opened, only to fall over 3,000 points to below $67K hours later.

Optimism was short-lived as the US government transferred 30K BTC worth around $2 billion, while still holding another 39K BTC confiscated from the Silk Road founders.

Meanwhile, ETH spot has performed relatively well compared to BTC following Trump’s speech, with ETHBTC gaining 5% since, despite its fourth consecutive day of spot ETF outflows.

The volatility premium of ETH to BTC has also widened to about 8% for the longer tenor expiries from 4% last week.

Why the strength in ETH? The market might be becoming immune to headline outflow figures due to the rotation from more expensive ETHE to the cheaper ETFs. This raises the question: once we see steady daily inflows, could ETH break significantly higher?

What’s Ahead This Week?

Election headlines will remain a major focus, but several key macroeconomic events are also on the horizon. Key events starting with the FOMC meeting on Wednesday, megacap tech earnings (Apple, Amazon, Meta) throughout the week, and unemployment data on Friday.

Trade Idea

While we maintain a range-trading outlook for BTC as re-iterated yesterday, we favor accumulating ETH at its current discount, as volatility has picked up slightly.

ETH Accumulator

Buy ETH spot at 9.0% discount (3,040) every week as long as spot is below 3,600.

  • Maturity: 4OCT24 (10 weeks)
  • Strike: 3,040 (-9.0%)
  • Upper Barrier: 3,600 (+7.8%)
  • Observation Frequency: Weekly
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Disclosure: The authors of this content and members of Nansen may be participating or invested in some of the protocols or tokens mentioned herein. The foregoing statement acts as a disclosure of potential conflicts of interest and is not a recommendation to purchase or invest in any token or participate in any protocol. Nansen does not recommend any particular course of action in relation to any token or protocol. The content herein is meant purely for educational and informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as financial, investment, legal, tax or any other professional or other advice. None of the content and information herein is presented to induce or to attempt to induce any reader or other person to buy, sell or hold any token or participate in any protocol or enter into, or offer to enter into, any agreement for or with a view to buying or selling any token or participating in any protocol. Statements made herein (including statements of opinion, if any) are wholly generic and not tailored to take into account the personal needs and unique circumstances of any reader or any other person. Readers are strongly urged to exercise caution and have regard to their own personal needs and circumstances before making any decision to buy or sell any token or participate in any protocol. Observations and views expressed herein may be changed by Nansen at any time without notice. Nansen accepts no liability whatsoever for any losses or liabilities arising from the use of or reliance on any of this content.