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BTC prices dropped to $55.2K during early US trading on Monday after the German Police moved $900 million worth of BTC to exchanges. The market was initially spooked but quickly rebounded.

We are seeing glimmers of bullishness due to:

  1. $200 million worth of BTC was later returned to the German Police from the exchanges, indicating these assets didn’t hit the market.
  2. Strong demand shown by quick dip-buying, supported by $295 million ETF inflows on July 8, the highest in 21 days.
  3. Despite thin liquidity, BTC and ETH have made higher lows this week, with dips bought up aggressively.

The market is highly reactive to supply movements, suggesting speculative selling pressure rather than real spot demand. This may indicate a market over-positioning for the downside.

A catalyst is needed. The ETH spot ETF is set to start trading around July 15. Positive reception could boost liquidity and potentially surprise the market with an upward move.

Trade Idea

Recommend deploying into OTM ERKOs, anticipating a breakout with minimal cash outlay and zero downside risk.

BTC Call ERKO (60/70K 27-SEP) Max Payout: $10,000 per BTC (6.1x) if BTC spot price is just below 70k at expiry. Cost: $1,650 per BTC (Spot Ref: 57,600)

ETH Call ERKO (4/5K 27-SEP) Max Payout: $1,000 per ETH (12.5x) if ETH spot price is just below 5k at expiry Cost: $80 per ETH (Spot Ref: 3,090)

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