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Bitcoin’s reaction to last Friday’s macro developments was relatively restrained, even as equities rallied sharply. Institutional demand for spot ETFs remained steady, offering underlying support. Still, front-end implied volatility held firm, with BTC consolidating in a tight $107k to $110k range.

The sustained elevation in near-term vols suggests that traders are positioning around headline risk ahead of the Bitcoin Conference in Las Vegas, scheduled for 27 to 29 May. Focus is already building around the event’s speaker line-up, which includes JD Vance, Michael Saylor, Donald Trump Jr., and Eric Trump.

Last July’s Nashville Bitcoin Conference offers a useful analogue. At the time, a keynote by President Trump coincided with a sharp spike in 1-day implied vols above 90, followed by a swift reversal and a nearly 30% decline in BTC within two days. That episode continues to shape market memory.

While the probability of a similar drawdown appears low, positioning suggests a defensive tilt. Perpetuals open interest has declined and funding rates have normalised over the past 24 hours. Some high-beta retail traders, including James Wynn, have also scaled back exposure. Demand for short-dated downside remains in focus.

Against that backdrop, reports of Trump Media exploring a $3 billion dollar crypto raise, though denied, have added to headline sensitivity. In our view, BTC is likely to remain range-bound in the near term. Once the event passes and key speeches conclude, front-end vols are expected to compress as risk premia fade.

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Weekly Market Positioning Update – [w/c May 19th]
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