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  • ⁠Markets are quiet with BTC having achieved equilibrium once more, trading in a 60-70k range while ETH awaits the next stage of spot ETF approval.
  • ⁠The market brushed off (maybe too quickly) confirmation that the Mt.Gox wallet move was in preparation for distribution.
  • ⁠⁠The only thing to upset this state of zen is the persistently high spot-forward basis and perp funding suggesting there is still strong positioning and hence possible risk to the downside.

Trade Ideas: We continue to favour longer term ETH bullish trades as well as the zen maximising spot-forward basis.

  1. ETH Dec ERKO Seagull Buy 27DEC24 4,000 CALL with ERKO above 6,800 Sell 27DEC24 3,000 PUT Cost: ZERO Max payout: 2,799 USD per ETH if ETH spot expires just below 6,800. Downside: At expiry, if spot is below 3,000 then put is exercised and you buy ETH at 3,000.

  2. BTC Spot-Forward Basis remains elevated despite the selloff today. Lock in 12% pa with zero downside held to end-Dec.

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