Markets remain tense as the world awaits Israel’s response to Iran’s missile strike on Tuesday. Crypto saw another selloff, with Bitcoin (BTC) dropping to $59,972 and Ethereum (ETH) falling below $2,400. BTC’s lower-low and lower-high suggest a short-term bearish outlook.
We believe this weakness is temporary, given the strong correlation between crypto and U.S. stocks. As U.S. equities recover, crypto is likely to follow. This correlation highlights that macroeconomic factors are currently the main drivers of risk asset prices.
With the ADP payroll report beating expectations, tomorrow’s non-farm payroll report will be key in confirming a strong U.S. labor market. A combination of expected rate cuts and labor strength could boost risk assets.
Trade Idea
Despite Middle Eastern tensions impacting Bitcoin during its historically strong month, we see this dip as temporary and expect the rally to prevail. We favor a Principal Protected Sharkfin strategy to capitalize on the expected bullish momentum.
BTC PRINCIPAL PROTECTED SHARKFIN
Maturity: 27DEC24
Strike: 75,000
Barrier: 88,000
Cost: Zero
Max Payout: 74.43% p.a. if spot expires just below 88,000 BTCUSD
(spot ref: 60,200)