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QCP Extraordinary Market Update
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  • The Iranian attack on Israel has caused panic in the market. BTC traded to lows of 60.8k, ETH to 2850 and Alts were down another 20-30% on average.
  • It is likely that BTC was used as a weekend proxy macro hedge and therefore bore the full brunt of the immediate risk-off reaction.
  • BTC has since traded back above 64k and ETH above 3000.
  • ETH risk reversals dropped all the way down to -18% but is now back up to slightly positive in the front-end! (Chart below)
  • This has been our best leading indicator for the downside moves. Will it also be an accurate signal for bullish recovery? If so, there could be opportunities to buy the dip.
  • It is worth noting that historically, buying the dip on the outbreak of major geopolitical conflicts has been a profitable trade.

Trade Ideas:

If you would like to buy the dip defensively with some safety buffers, the following are two possible strategies.

Indicative (spot ref: 64,500)

  1. BTC Accumulator Every Friday, buy BTC at 54k level as long as BTC spot remains under 77,400 at the time of observation.

Maturity: 23AUG24 (20 weeks) Strike: 54,180 (-16%) Upper Barrier: 77,400 (+20%)

  1. BTC Bullish CFCC

Every Friday, you will get a yield of 92.5%pa as long as spot price is above 64.5k.

At expiry, if spot price is below 55k, USD will be converted to BTC at 60k strike.

If spot price is above 55k at expiry, 100% of the USD principal is returned.

**Coupon Rate:** 92.5% p.a.
**Maturity:** 27SEP24 (23 weeks)
**Coupon Trigger:** 64,500
**Strike:** 60,000
**Protection Level:** 55,000
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Disclosure: The authors of this content and members of Nansen may be participating or invested in some of the protocols or tokens mentioned herein. The foregoing statement acts as a disclosure of potential conflicts of interest and is not a recommendation to purchase or invest in any token or participate in any protocol. Nansen does not recommend any particular course of action in relation to any token or protocol. The content herein is meant purely for educational and informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as financial, investment, legal, tax or any other professional or other advice. None of the content and information herein is presented to induce or to attempt to induce any reader or other person to buy, sell or hold any token or participate in any protocol or enter into, or offer to enter into, any agreement for or with a view to buying or selling any token or participating in any protocol. Statements made herein (including statements of opinion, if any) are wholly generic and not tailored to take into account the personal needs and unique circumstances of any reader or any other person. Readers are strongly urged to exercise caution and have regard to their own personal needs and circumstances before making any decision to buy or sell any token or participate in any protocol. Observations and views expressed herein may be changed by Nansen at any time without notice. Nansen accepts no liability whatsoever for any losses or liabilities arising from the use of or reliance on any of this content.