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The past 2 weeks saw market participants panicking as BTC traded lower to 54k and alts got flushed 30%. As blood flowed on the streets, we continued to hold on to our medium term bullish view.

We maintained a balanced perspective when we said the macro picture was turning rosier. Powell, in his recent communications and interviews, mentioned that a lot of progress has been made in curbing inflation. Markets are now pricing in a 100% chance of a rate cut in Sep.

The flows from the German police have concluded, and despite the impending distribution of BTC from Mt Gox, markets found a strong bid to bring BTC over 65k.

The ETH spot ETF looks like a done deal with the SEC asking for final revisions to S-1 filings and fee schedules. Analysts predict trading will begin on 23rd Jul.

Lastly, Trump picking J.D. Vance as his Vice President provides another positive catalyst. Vance is a known Bitcoin holder, and his potential influence could lead to more favorable crypto regulations under a Trump presidency.

Trade Idea

We continue to like trades with topside convexity as mentioned in our previous broadcasts. With the forward basis also moving higher (10-12% annualised yield), the payoffs are much more attractive.

ETH ENHANCED SHARKFIN

  • Spot Ref: 3,500 ETHUSD
  • Maturity: 27DEC24
  • Base Coupon: 2% p.a.
  • Max Payout: 76.64%
  • Strike: 3,750 ETH/USD
  • Barrier: 5,000 ETH/USD

Get paid up to 76.64% p.a. if ETH expires just below 5,000 at expiry. Even if ETH expires below 3,750 or above 5,000, you still get paid a 2% p.a. coupon.

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Disclosure: The authors of this content and members of Nansen may be participating or invested in some of the protocols or tokens mentioned herein. The foregoing statement acts as a disclosure of potential conflicts of interest and is not a recommendation to purchase or invest in any token or participate in any protocol. Nansen does not recommend any particular course of action in relation to any token or protocol. The content herein is meant purely for educational and informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as financial, investment, legal, tax or any other professional or other advice. None of the content and information herein is presented to induce or to attempt to induce any reader or other person to buy, sell or hold any token or participate in any protocol or enter into, or offer to enter into, any agreement for or with a view to buying or selling any token or participating in any protocol. Statements made herein (including statements of opinion, if any) are wholly generic and not tailored to take into account the personal needs and unique circumstances of any reader or any other person. Readers are strongly urged to exercise caution and have regard to their own personal needs and circumstances before making any decision to buy or sell any token or participate in any protocol. Observations and views expressed herein may be changed by Nansen at any time without notice. Nansen accepts no liability whatsoever for any losses or liabilities arising from the use of or reliance on any of this content.