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The failed assassination attempt on Donald Trump at the beginning of the weekend triggered a rally in crypto prices. The strong upside momentum continued into the Monday Asia session, driven by aggressive programmatic buying of BTC on Coinbase from 5am to 1pm SGT (a highly unusual flow for Sunday evening in the US).

This whole move seems to be caused by the market pricing in a Trump win at the coming election (similar to Reagan after a failed assassination attempt in 1981) and this is positive for crypto prices because of his overtly pro-crypto stance.

We think that the market was already positioned for a rally with the German government having exhausted their supply and also with large hedge funds aggressively buying calls last week. Trump was the perfect trigger for a market raring to go long.

The question is whether this bullishness carries on. Will the US open see a big short squeeze? We’ve started to see some institutional players hedging the downside on the rally by buying near-dated puts. Perhaps the US will fade the move instead.

We maintain our medium term bullish view given the continued large demand from BTC spot ETF inflows and also the imminent ETH spot ETF launch as a catalyst.

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Disclosure: The authors of this content and members of Nansen may be participating or invested in some of the protocols or tokens mentioned herein. The foregoing statement acts as a disclosure of potential conflicts of interest and is not a recommendation to purchase or invest in any token or participate in any protocol. Nansen does not recommend any particular course of action in relation to any token or protocol. The content herein is meant purely for educational and informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as financial, investment, legal, tax or any other professional or other advice. None of the content and information herein is presented to induce or to attempt to induce any reader or other person to buy, sell or hold any token or participate in any protocol or enter into, or offer to enter into, any agreement for or with a view to buying or selling any token or participating in any protocol. Statements made herein (including statements of opinion, if any) are wholly generic and not tailored to take into account the personal needs and unique circumstances of any reader or any other person. Readers are strongly urged to exercise caution and have regard to their own personal needs and circumstances before making any decision to buy or sell any token or participate in any protocol. Observations and views expressed herein may be changed by Nansen at any time without notice. Nansen accepts no liability whatsoever for any losses or liabilities arising from the use of or reliance on any of this content.