Overnight, macro markets had a hawkish surprise from the FOMC Dots, and right after that Mt. Gox officially announced a delay by up to a year.
And in all that BTC has barely budged.
For us this is a sign that positioning in the market is light, which limits the chances of a sharp near-term move.
In any case, other macro markets have latched onto the hawkish FOMC Dots forecasting 2 less cuts in 2024 and a higher terminal rate as a signal for a broad-based risk off.
While we are not sure the Dots really mean very much, US equity (Chart 1 – Nasdaq) and rates markets (Chart 2 – 10 year yield) have broken some very key levels on the back of this, and reflexivity can take over with the bearish thesis from here.
![Chart 1](/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fresearch.nansen.ai%2Fstrapi-assets%2FScreenshot_2023_09_25_at_3_49_51_PM_318a10c904%2FScreenshot_2023_09_25_at_3_49_51_PM_318a10c904.png&w=1920&q=75)
![Chart 2](/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fresearch.nansen.ai%2Fstrapi-assets%2FScreenshot_2023_09_25_at_3_51_46_PM_e9f2e6ac41%2FScreenshot_2023_09_25_at_3_51_46_PM_e9f2e6ac41.png&w=1920&q=75)
If we are right, then this macro move could seep into crypto markets and take BTC lower with it (Chart 3), albeit with a lower beta as compared to other very stretched macro markets like the NASDAQ.
![Chart 3](/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fresearch.nansen.ai%2Fstrapi-assets%2FScreenshot_2023_09_25_at_3_52_09_PM_c02861532d%2FScreenshot_2023_09_25_at_3_52_09_PM_c02861532d.png&w=1920&q=75)