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  • BTC has dipped back below 69k and ETH below 3500 again on the back of a relatively large $223.8m outflow for BTC spot ETFs on Monday.
  • The desk continues to see buying of long-dated BTC calls, in particular, sizeable daily buying of Mar 2025 200k Calls.
  • We are also starting to see the market position for the ETH spot ETF (upcoming deadline of 23-May) and with signs similar to what we saw ahead of BTC spot ETF approval:
  1. Call buyers and elevated perp funding and forwards dragging spot higher and causing the Grayscale spread to increase to -24% (similar to the GBTC discount in October)

  2. Increase in long positioning on CME ETH futures

    - However, the SEC is not clustering ETH spot ETF deadlines which is what it did ahead of BTC spot ETF approval. Does this mean the likelihood of ETH spot ETF approval is lower?

    - Either way, we expect some additional volatility in May. We've sold Apr vol vs. bought May vol at a 2% spread (it was a 10% spread for BTC between the pre-and-post spot ETF expiries).

Trade Idea:

BTC is still a buy the dip for us so we prefer Accumulators

For a 20 week deployment, you are able to buy BTC at 56,850 (17% discount) for every week that BTC trades below 80,150.

(spot ref: 68,500)

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