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QCP U.S. Election 2024 Commentary
QCP Capital
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What an incredibly eventful day! Just a few more votes for Trump, and the 2024 presidency is pretty much decided. Trump has maintained a lead in the polls from the start, and now it all hinges on Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, and Wisconsin. With over half the votes counted in these states, the scales are tipping toward Trump.

The dollar surged 1.2% to reach July highs of 105, with yields also climbing as markets anticipate stronger economic growth and increased fiscal spending. The 10-year Treasury yield rose by 15 basis points, while the 2-year added 8 basis points, signaling heightened investor expectations. Despite expectations for a decrease in rate cut probabilities due to Trump’s friendlier proposed policies, the market is still pricing in 1.8 cuts this year and 3 more cuts next year.

The crypto market has been on fire with BTC hitting all-time high of 75k after touching its previous record of 73.5k, set back on March 14. Since then, BTC has traded mostly within a tight range below 70k. Notably, BTC has now navigated three election cycles since its inception in 2009, each followed by rallies to new highs, with prices never dipping back to pre-election levels. We expect this bullish momentum to hold strong as we head into 2025.

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Disclosure: The authors of this content and members of Nansen may be participating or invested in some of the protocols or tokens mentioned herein. The foregoing statement acts as a disclosure of potential conflicts of interest and is not a recommendation to purchase or invest in any token or participate in any protocol. Nansen does not recommend any particular course of action in relation to any token or protocol. The content herein is meant purely for educational and informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as financial, investment, legal, tax or any other professional or other advice. None of the content and information herein is presented to induce or to attempt to induce any reader or other person to buy, sell or hold any token or participate in any protocol or enter into, or offer to enter into, any agreement for or with a view to buying or selling any token or participating in any protocol. Statements made herein (including statements of opinion, if any) are wholly generic and not tailored to take into account the personal needs and unique circumstances of any reader or any other person. Readers are strongly urged to exercise caution and have regard to their own personal needs and circumstances before making any decision to buy or sell any token or participate in any protocol. Observations and views expressed herein may be changed by Nansen at any time without notice. Nansen accepts no liability whatsoever for any losses or liabilities arising from the use of or reliance on any of this content.