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QCP Weekend Brief
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  • We saw unusually large selling of Perp-June Basis over the last two days for both BTC and ETH.
  • This has compressed the front-end and flattened the whole forward curve to 15-17% across the board.

  • We suspect the flow could be Ethena related but it could also simply be large players squeezing yield out of elevated forwards as leveraged longs decrease.

  • In spite of the tight range in the past week, we are picking up on more BTC bullishness (especially in comparison to ETH) for the following reasons:

    1. Increasing BTC spot ETF inflows in the last few days (up to +$232m on Thu)

    2. Positive headlines about key traditional finance players like Citadel, Goldman, UBS and Citi joining as Authorised Participants for Blackrock's ETF.

    3. Consistently large buying of BTC calls (vs large selling of ETH calls)

    4. Reduced leverage in BTC with perp funding flat and the rest of the forward curve lower as well

    5. Upcoming BTC halving narrative
    - Are these 5 factors enough to take BTC another leg higher?

Bullish BTC Trade Idea: The BTC Moonshot

Deployment in USD. Profit if BTC moons. Buy if BTC dips, and get your principal back if it trades sideways.

Live examples (spot ref 68k):

26-APR expiry

  • 350% p.a. profit if BTC is above 90k at expiry
  • If BTC is below 50k at expiry, USD is used to buy BTC at 60k
  • If BTC is in between 50k and 90k at expiry, 100% of the principal is returned

28-JUN expiry

  • 340% p.a. profit if BTC is above 110k at expiry
  • If BTC is below 50k at expiry, USD is used to buy BTC at 60k
  • If BTC is in between 50k and 110k at expiry, 100% of the principal is returned

27-DEC expiry

  • 275% p.a. profit if BTC is above 150k at expiry
  • If BTC is below 50k at expiry, USD is used to buy BTC at 60k
  • If BTC is in between 50k and 150k at expiry, 100% of the principal is returned
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Disclosure: The authors of this content and members of Nansen may be participating or invested in some of the protocols or tokens mentioned herein. The foregoing statement acts as a disclosure of potential conflicts of interest and is not a recommendation to purchase or invest in any token or participate in any protocol. Nansen does not recommend any particular course of action in relation to any token or protocol. The content herein is meant purely for educational and informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as financial, investment, legal, tax or any other professional or other advice. None of the content and information herein is presented to induce or to attempt to induce any reader or other person to buy, sell or hold any token or participate in any protocol or enter into, or offer to enter into, any agreement for or with a view to buying or selling any token or participating in any protocol. Statements made herein (including statements of opinion, if any) are wholly generic and not tailored to take into account the personal needs and unique circumstances of any reader or any other person. Readers are strongly urged to exercise caution and have regard to their own personal needs and circumstances before making any decision to buy or sell any token or participate in any protocol. Observations and views expressed herein may be changed by Nansen at any time without notice. Nansen accepts no liability whatsoever for any losses or liabilities arising from the use of or reliance on any of this content.