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The new quarter kickstarted with some volatility in risk assets due to the escalation of the Israeli-Iranian conflict. Given the timing (one-year anniversary since the outbreak of the Gaza war) and scale of Iran’s attack, market is expecting Israel’s retaliation to be more critical as they target key infrastructures such as Iran’s nuclear or oil facilities.

Friday’s non-farm payrolls printed 254,000, smashing expectations at 150,000. US unemployment rate came in at 4.1% (est. 4.2%). The strong data reflects a robust labour market despite last month’s dismal print.

A resilient labour market coupled with the possibility of additional rate cuts later this year have boosted risk assets, with BTC briefly reclaiming $62,000.

Options market activity continues to grow as as we enter Q4 with demand for December calls still building up, highlighting market’s bullish view towards the end of the year.

With BTC down approximately 5% from last week’s highs, we believe the recent positive macro data supports our view of the long-awaited Uptober trend.

Trade Idea

With Geopolitical risk being the biggest concern now till US elections, we favour locking in yields at the these spot levels to allow the dust to settle and position for a rally into the year end.

BTC CFCC

Receive weekly 37% p.a. coupons as long as BTC price is above 58,500

Maturity: 27DEC24

Coupon Rate: 37% p.a.

Coupon Level: Above 58,500

Strike: 55,000

Protection Level: 50,000

At expiry, if BTC is below 50,000, the USD deployed will be converted to BTC at 55,000

(Spot ref: 62,250)

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Disclosure: The authors of this content and members of Nansen may be participating or invested in some of the protocols or tokens mentioned herein. The foregoing statement acts as a disclosure of potential conflicts of interest and is not a recommendation to purchase or invest in any token or participate in any protocol. Nansen does not recommend any particular course of action in relation to any token or protocol. The content herein is meant purely for educational and informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as financial, investment, legal, tax or any other professional or other advice. None of the content and information herein is presented to induce or to attempt to induce any reader or other person to buy, sell or hold any token or participate in any protocol or enter into, or offer to enter into, any agreement for or with a view to buying or selling any token or participating in any protocol. Statements made herein (including statements of opinion, if any) are wholly generic and not tailored to take into account the personal needs and unique circumstances of any reader or any other person. Readers are strongly urged to exercise caution and have regard to their own personal needs and circumstances before making any decision to buy or sell any token or participate in any protocol. Observations and views expressed herein may be changed by Nansen at any time without notice. Nansen accepts no liability whatsoever for any losses or liabilities arising from the use of or reliance on any of this content.