War Room 1: US Banking System Issues, Bullish Crypto Price, and Trading Tools

Member doesn’t believe there is scope to reduce rates anymore - it will not be effective. Another doesn’t care what the Fed does anymore as he doesn't think it matters any more.
The Fed is too behind the curve, they increased rates too much, and now they need to decrease rates.
The implication for digital assets and crypto is that when this narrative shifts back to easing monetary policy, it will be bullish for crypto and risk on for every risk asset, from equities to crypto.
- Caution, however, as there will be different signals. Member believes the rate hikes will create a recession in the US towards the end of the year, then there will be an easing of monetary conditions. Need to be careful which signal is strongest… recession or easing monetary conditions.
Member's anecdotes of economy souring:
- People can’t find work, losing jobs etc.

Delphi thinks so, with BTC up 75% this year.
Member expects a banking crisis later this year and wants to balance positioning ahead of the increase in global liquidity and reacting. ⅓ of his portfolio is currently allocated, with cash to allocate when systematic liquidity starts freeing up.
Member believes there will be one more dip which will be a great buying opportunity.
- May get to early $20k in the next 3-10 month range (from what he has seen from a number of different models)
Feeling optimistic, if the bull market is going to occur based on everything we look at it hasn’t occurred, the meat of the move hasn’t begun. On-chain signals suggest it hasn’t even started, optimistic over the next 2-3 years, but not confident over the next year.

Member accumulating BTC, ETH, SOL.
Everything has been so low volatility, 2 year low in volatility at Ethereum. Member bought ETH calls longer duration for the first time. He believes the market is underpricing ETH volatility; it's currently trading on par with BTC volatility.
Member selling puts on COIN and MSTR.
One member is selling options on-chain on Aevo. There are minimum volume requirements for incentives. You need an exchange pass to use it still currently, around 0.1 ETH on OpenSea. if you qualify for their incentive program they likely give you a free pass though
- Website / Twitter
Keeping an eye on Pendle, and Trader Joe. Also interested in GMD but not making any decisions on that yet.
A member trading Stacks as its part of the narrative for scaling Bitcoin.

In 2008, we came very close to the banking system collapsing, a member thinks that we are headed in that direction. Another thinks that it is now far worse than 2008.
Member thinks that the fed will freeze banks to prevent a bank run, which will induce widespread panic. Member is not keeping any money in a US bank and considers them very dangerous.
The banking system is a eurodollar banking system, with the USD attached to the Euro in ways that are not obvious to most people.
The numbers out of Germany have been horrendous, decrease in exports and imports, member thinks the system is teetering on the brink.

Last week Paradigm released Artemis for bots, interesting to a member given that it is built in Rust which is highly performant, and there are few similar applications being built for trading. Recommends trying to leverage it in combination with AI/ChatGPT to see if you can make it work.
Link to announcement.

In Argentina last week they released a new law that doesn’t allow companies to use crypto in transactions. Another barrier put in place for people to stop taking money out of the system.

Member likes it - feels like a proper game, similar to World of Warcraft with a physics them.
In the gameplay, you are in a world where you are in a multiverse with different timelines - quant physics concepts
Member likes the level of detail they are pursuing
It has a pretty wide audience so far, with 380k members.
Website / Twitter

Same team as Lido, so expecting LSDs to grow a good chunk in Cosmos, Jake (from Nansen) likes Stride (STRD) to capture most of the value for LSDs (and has a small bag of it) and they will also be launching as a consumer chain secured by the Cosmos hub.
Future Catalysts: more money markets like Mars, Umee and Nolos Protocol supporting LSD looping and likely will keep raising the hard caps on them.
Website / Twitter

Argent Starkware quest.
Member has a position in Velocore for zkSync - could be a good play in a while if the ecosystem actually kicks off. Staking and voting there for the airdrop as well.
Member also interacts with the Fuel ecosystem testnet to potentially farm that airdrop.

CLI on-chain tool from liquiditygoblin enables users to fire off trades on-chain, on 3 main chains.
A tool for posting more advanced orders on-chain, member suggests double checking where and how your private key is stored.
Huma Capital
- Captures retail sentiment over social media. WIP in its early days, but could be very interesting to monitor once the bull market kicks off.
- Website