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AI Agents, The Next Meta?
Jake Kennis
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Key Takeaways
5 min read
  • AI agents represent a new meta that is here to stay, in our opinion. They have significantly outperformed in recent months, and activity is only increasing. Given the dispersion amongst the thousands of potential agents being launched, it might be easiest to bet on the fastest horse(s), which in many cases are the first movers (e.g., GOAT, LUNA) or the actual launchpads themselves (e.g., VIRTUAL).
  • VIRTUAL may be an “index” play on the AI agent narrative and offer exposure to the gaming narrative and the Base ecosystem at large. Similar to how AERO has been an index player in the growth of the memecoin casino and activity on Base, VIRTUAL may play a similar role in the launch of AI agents. VIRTUAL has a flywheel effect for its token, where each new launch on the platform leads to incremental demand for the VIRTUAL token (to trade agents), and the generated fees are used as a buyback program for VIRTUAL. Additionally, VIRTUAL holders may be eligible for future airdrops from new agents launched on the platform.
  • Similar to memecoins, most of these AI agents will go to zero. Launchpads such as Creator Bid and Virtuals create a pumpdotfun experience for anyone to launch their own tokenized agents. Given the implicit dispersion, it might be easiest to get exposure through the first movers or betting on the casinos themselves such as VIRTUAL.
  • Creator Bid launched last week and does not have a token. However, playing around with the platform, trading agent keys, or even launching your own agent may qualify you for a future airdrop.

Introduction

Since October 1st, some of the top AI agent coins/platforms are up nearly 3-7x as shown below.

Source: Nansen Query

Many are excited about the intersection of AI and crypto, and things are starting to heat up from a price and mindshare perspective. From a $50k grant from Marc Andreesen, we have seen Truth Terminal launch a meme coin, GOAT, to a nearly $670m MC at the time of writing. Although Truth Terminal is just one instance of an autonomous AI bot, we now see a Cambrian explosion of interactive agents that can tokenize engagement and create flywheel effects for a given agent’s token/key price. We will chat briefly about two projects on Base and then cover some early traders to VIRTUALS to see what they are betting on next…

Top Projects

Today, you can launch your own tokenized AI agent within minutes with the help of apps such as Creator Bid or Virtuals. These apps allow any creator or community to leverage AI to create agents that generate and monetize content on their behalf. In other words, these apps are the pumpdotfun equivalent for tokenized AI agents - anyone can launch their own AI agent using Virtuals or Creator Bid. There will be many thousands of AI agents launched, so there will be very few winners in terms of market caps, so caution is warranted.

Creator Bid

Currently, the tokens are mostly minted on a bonding curve to get liquidity and then are provisioned into an LP on a DEX. The interesting component that follows is the monetization of these agents. Like KOLs or other popular influencers, the more engagement/following they get, the more opportunities open up for advertisements, sponsorship, etc. This same power law effect will also likely play out with AI agents who gain sufficient popularity, and the agent keys/token holders stand to gain or lose.

Creator Bid launched this week on October 22nd and already has over 136 agent keys. There is currently no token, so there can be a potential airdrop for users and holders of agent keys. It is worth checking out given the recent adoption and fees earned for specific agents such as WOLF. In short, Creator Bid allows there to be no initial liquidity requirement and a 2% fee on the trading of tokens all go to the creator for another revenue stream.

Virtuals

Similarly, Virtuals is keen to tackle AI personalities ranging from personal companions to in-game NPCs, focusing on gaming. The product went live in March 2024, and the team has previously worked with PathDAO, a popular gaming guild, and PathDAO has solid backing. They launched their own subnet on TAO focused on audio-to-animation models in the spring of 2024. Because of its positioning within the TAO ecosystem and its AI agent product, we think VIRTUAL captures a few narratives simultaneously, particularly around AI, gaming, and exposure to the Base ecosystem growth at large. They already have an AI Waifu product, which raised $6.4m in March 2024, but are also launching:

  • UEFN: AIG agents for gaming
  • AI IDOL: interactive experiences for artists, spanning music and other immersive technologies

VIRTUAL, the native token to the Virtuals app, stands to gain the most from the continued adoption of projects/characters created on the platform. There is a flywheel effect for VIRTUAL, which is used for anyone to launch their own AI agent - to buy LUNA or other projects, users will need to trade with the VIRTUAL pair, creating incremental demand to own VIRTUAL. A buyback mechanism is in place, where portions of the revenue generated by dapps using agents are used to repurchase VIRTUAL. Additionally, there is a potential airdrop component for VIRTUAL holders who may receive airdrops for new AI agents or dapps building on Virtuals. For those not looking to buy into a specific agent token, VIRTUAL provides a solid “index” bet on the general growth of AI agents.

To see how novel this agent stuff is, you can watch Luna’s brain working in real-time and see her transact onchain here. Given that LLMs are improving exponentially, these agents can become quite intelligent and customized. It's hard to distinguish between many of these agents, but price action-wise, it is clear that competing against the winners/first movers is hard. In this case, LUNA is the first mover with a $55m MC at the time of writing. It also has 500k TikTok followers, where it livestreams 24/7 with the token chart front and center.

Enough fundamentals, tell me who the early onchain traders are.

Top Traders

We will track the top traders of VIRTUAL in 2024. For those interested in tracking any other token such as GOAT, Nansen Pro has you covered. Our early buyers comprise any address that bought VIRTUAL between June 14th and October 12th, 2024, translating to addresses up 4-5x based on current prices of around $0.20.

To make it easier to find high-signal wallets, we also removed contracts and any high-activity addresses that were quite noisy. Below are the top 10 addresses with positions equivalent to $100k of VIRTUAL at today's prices.

Source: Nansen Query

Looking at the top 100 buyers of VIRTUAL, we can map out their VIRTUAL holdings over time:

Source: Nansen Query

Most of the early buyers still hold the token while the price continues to be parabolic.

What Else Are They Holding?

Outside of VIRTUAL, these wallets do not hold any other notable position on Base.

Source: Nansen Query

The main positions include SPX, ETH, cbBTC, WAI, and WELL.

Conclusion
With the acceleration of memecoins and AI agents coming together, AI agents represent a new meta that is here to stay. Some of the current contenders for the DePin meta will be eclipsed by the AI agent meta in the short term as it's a new contender with much more room to run regarding valuations and potential value accrual (speculation). However, it is hard to say who this appeals to besides crypto-natives and tech-forward people compared to a cute dog picture, which appeals to a much broader audience. This will undoubtedly change as these agents become embedded into gaming and hyper-personalized for everyday lives (think the movie ‘Her’). In the meantime, there are potential plays through the first movers (i.e., GOAT) or the platforms themselves (i.e., VIRTUAL) to get exposure in a way that isn't just a game of musical chairs on the new shiny AI agent.
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Disclosure: The authors of this content and members of Nansen may be participating or invested in some of the protocols or tokens mentioned herein. The foregoing statement acts as a disclosure of potential conflicts of interest and is not a recommendation to purchase or invest in any token or participate in any protocol. Nansen does not recommend any particular course of action in relation to any token or protocol. The content herein is meant purely for educational and informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as financial, investment, legal, tax or any other professional or other advice. None of the content and information herein is presented to induce or to attempt to induce any reader or other person to buy, sell or hold any token or participate in any protocol or enter into, or offer to enter into, any agreement for or with a view to buying or selling any token or participating in any protocol. Statements made herein (including statements of opinion, if any) are wholly generic and not tailored to take into account the personal needs and unique circumstances of any reader or any other person. Readers are strongly urged to exercise caution and have regard to their own personal needs and circumstances before making any decision to buy or sell any token or participate in any protocol. Observations and views expressed herein may be changed by Nansen at any time without notice. Nansen accepts no liability whatsoever for any losses or liabilities arising from the use of or reliance on any of this content.