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Macro and Market Update: What now?
Aurelie Barthere
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Key Takeaways
6 min read

Three subjective scenarios going forward:

  • 55% "Wall-of-worry climbing" where BTC revisits and crosses above all-time-highs
  • 30% China-US negotiations drag on further, impacting the macro: BTC range-bound with some bouts of volatility
  • 15% Full trade war, global recession: BTC double-digit drawdown

In this note, we explore scenario analysis for policy, macro, and market developments and their potential impact on crypto prices.

Tariff policy key developments

The contrast between resilient hard data and collapsing business and consumer surveys shows that economic agents in the US and other regions have adopted a “wait-and-see” strategy regarding spending, hiring, and price adjustments as they seek more clarity around tariffs.

After escalating post-” Liberation Day” on April 2, policy uncertainty seems to have receded after April 9, when the US administration announced a 90-day suspension on reciprocal tariffs to allow for negotiations. Later in the month, the US hinted that 100 %+ tariffs on China were unsustainable and would...