The rally in crypto and risk assets has persisted, with BTC crossing above 23k. With so far strong employment data and a lower-than-expected US PCE, the scenario of “goldilocks” has been scoring some points.

We present three possible macro scenarios from here, 1) Goldilocks of Soft landing, 2) Imminent Recession, 3) Residually high inflation and readjustment of interest rates higher.

**Economists and investors have been in the camp of Scenario 2 (imminent recession) for most of 2022, and right now, the narrative is shifting to “goldilocks” (Scenario 1). Central banks (ex ECB and BoJ) are becoming less hawkish.

Our own interpretation of these fast moving macro and market variables is that we could station in Scenario 1 “Goldilocks” for a bit longer (positive price momentum, “presidential cycle”) and ultimately, transition to Scenario 3, with rates repricing higher for longer which will lead to a growth or market schock (Scenario 2). We will keep an open mind and revise this scenario calibration with ongoing new data.