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Crypto Compass
Aurelie Barthere
Key Takeaways
8 min read
  • The improving technicals of crypto prices and the declining share of stablecoins in investors’ on-chain wallets tell us that the lowest point of the crypto winter probably occurred after FTX collapsed last year.
  • However, derivative indicators warrant caution, meaning that price drawdowns would probably surprise market participants in both equity and crypto markets, especially as implied volatility is historically low in both markets.
  • Fed and ECB central bank meetings: Aside from the two respective already priced-in 25 bps rate hikes, the stances of Fed Chair Powell and President Lagarde will probably be more hawkish than what markets expect.

At the heart of the summer, markets appear calm, implied volatility keeps moving down, for both crypto and equity assets. We take advantage of this apparent “recess” to review three types of crypto indicators, based on on-chain, spot price and derivative data.

This week, the US Fed, the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) meet. We analyze the potential actions and stances of the respective central banks, and the likely impact on currencies.

Crypto Compass

In this section we review the signals delivered by risk management indicators designed to help increase the ratio of returns to price drawdowns for a portfolio invested in crypto markets. The majority of indicators are based on BTC data, because BTC is the...