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Crypto: Markets, new use cases, and new entrants
Aurelie Barthere
Key Takeaways
7 min read
  • Crypto risk management signals remain ambiguous, which warrants ongoing caution.
  • The number of newly active wallets across 11 chains has troughed in February 2023.
  • The Digital EUR is at a key juncture this autumn: We discuss the competition between public permissionless and segregated blockchains, for payments.

Crypto Markets

BTC is trading on low volumes with tentative breakouts (higher or lower) from the 25.8k - 26.8k prevalent trading range being very short-lived. Our risk management indicators still warrant caution (see risk dashboard here). So far this has been the optimal risk strategy: below is the out-of-sample live performance of BTC buy-and-hold vs the same strategy overlaid with the BTC call-put spread risk-on / risk-off signal.

Crypto has been trading uncorrelated with equities recently, the latter having benefited from the growing soft landing narrative among central bankers and their reluctance to continue...