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Nansen Macro: Special pre-FED meeting edition
Aurelie Barthere

Likely too early to call for the end of this bear market

  • BTC and ETH are up 12% and 30% respectively from Oct. 13 lows, the S&P500 equity risk premium fell by 1.6%point and bond yields came down
  • Investors are re-testing the central bank pivot narrative
  • Admittedly, the Bank of England temporarily re-started QE, and the Bank of Canada and the Reserve Bank of Australia stepped down the magnitude of their hikes this October
  • Also, important US growth data came below economists’ consensus, such as the conference board consumer survey and US PMIs
  • However, the US labor market is as tight and healthy as in the 1990s
  • Inflation. Gasoline prices have stopped falling. It is possible that US rents could cool down in Q2 2023, but likely...