The macro picture is becoming less foggy as we progress in this cycle. It is one of divergence, where manufacturing is on the verge of a recession, but where services are benefitting from households spending the remaining of the extra savings accumulated during the 2020-2021 covid fiscal bonanza.
The US Manufacturing Survey, which has a history of predicting economic cycles, is forecasting weaker growth, with the new orders sub-index down more than 3 points to 42.6 in May.
Meanwhile, the Services sector is doing ok, from EM Asia to the Americas, and is the main engine of growth and inflation, and the reason why mature market central banks are signaling high rates for longer.
Below are a few quotes from the...