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Post-reciprocal-tariff Strategy
Aurelie Barthere
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Key Takeaways
4 min read
The “reciprocal tariff” negotiation started strong and fast yesterday. Markets, from crypto to US rates, are pricing a stagflationary scenario, at least for the US. For now, our strategy is not to fight the market tape and wait for progress on the ongoing tariff negotiation (most countries are open to dialogue), and for better news on the labor market and the Fed fronts. Patience is a virtue.

Introduction

Yesterday, President Trump announced the new imposed levels of reciprocal tariffs, per trade partner. Here is a quick note that summarizes what surprised markets, followed by a suggested strategy for crypto and risk assets. This builds upon the note we published two days ago.

Retaliatory tariffs: The bad

  • President Trump was always going to open the negotiation forcefully, but still managed to surprise markets negatively.
  • The minimum...