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Pre-FOMC Market Update
Aurelie Barthere
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Key Takeaways
3 min read
  • Market scenario pricing has shifted more optimistic
  • FOMC this week: three rate cuts priced by rate markets (on hold this week), no significant effect on crypto expected
  • Technicals favor BTC over equities

In this quick note, we review our three macro and BTC/ risk asset scenarios, discuss this week's FOMC meeting, and market technicals.

Scenario Update with latest data

See our last note detailing the scenario analysis.

  1. 55% subjective probability: wall of worry climbing, BTC climbs slowly to all-time highs again, Alts recover,
  2. 30%: trade negotiations drag on in May, higher inflation + lower private spending shave some points off growth, BTC range-bound, and Alts down
  3. 15%: full trade war, recession, and double-digit losses in crypto

On the one hand, the data and developments of the past few days suggest scenarios 1 and 2 are the most probable: in...