In this quick note, we review our three macro and BTC/ risk asset scenarios, discuss this week's FOMC meeting, and market technicals.
Scenario Update with latest data
See our last note detailing the scenario analysis.
- 55% subjective probability: wall of worry climbing, BTC climbs slowly to all-time highs again, Alts recover,
- 30%: trade negotiations drag on in May, higher inflation + lower private spending shave some points off growth, BTC range-bound, and Alts down
- 15%: full trade war, recession, and double-digit losses in crypto
On the one hand, the data and developments of the past few days suggest scenarios 1 and 2 are the most probable: in...