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Sleuthing On-Chain: Catching the Footprints of Hype
Key Takeaways
11 min read
  • The report identifies footprints and characteristics of hype on asset prices using on-chain Ethereum data.
  • Bitcoin’s Tweet Volume is highly correlated with Bitcoin’s price (0.78).
  • Bitcoin’s Tweet volume is inversely related to the Change in Smart Money Wallets’ holding WBTC (-0.05).
  • Smart Money Wallets’ holding of WBTC is also inversely correlated to Bitcoin’s price movement (-0.08).
  • Change in Smart Money Wallets’ Holding WBTC may act as an early indicator of Bitcoin’s Tweet Volume and Bitcoin’s price direction.
  • Bitcoin’s Tweet Volume correlates significantly with the number of Fresh Wallets holding WBTC (0.45). And Fresh Wallets holding WBTC correlate with Bitcoin’s price movement (0.49).
  • We also observed similar observations when comparing Bitcoin’s Google Trends, on-chain indicators, and their relationship to Bitcoin's price action.
  • Bitcoin’s Google Trend and its price are highly correlated (0.73). This strong positive correlation is also present between Bitcoin’s Google Trend and the Change in Fresh Wallets holding WBTC (0.63).
  • Bitcoin’s Google Trend and Tweet Volumes are correlated. However in recent weeks Bitcoin’s Google Trends seems to be significantly lagging behind its Tweet Volume’s trajectory.
  • Chainlink, GMX and Dogecoin are 3 examples of projects with good fundamentals with poor hype, good fundamentals with positive hype, bad fundamentals with positive hype.
  • The current study observed that the change in Fresh Wallets holding a cryptocurrency could be an easily accessible proxy to Tweet Volume and Google Searches in identifying retail hype and potential trade ideas.
  • Smart Money remains a leading predictor of the price movement of a cryptocurrency.
  • We would like to reiterate the point that while our data points show significant correlation between different variables, correlation does not necessarily imply causation.


Blockchain technologies are being promoted as a replacement for banks; a new way to buy art; an essential part of the metaverse, and perhaps the next big investment opportunity, resulting in a rapid rise in its popularity. As such, emerging blockchain technologies continue to be subject to significant hype despite the current market downturn. Specifically, the Metaverse, Web3, Decentralized Finance, and Cryptocurrency are four key innovations that promise to deliver unique benefits for retail and business consumers, but all are in varying stages of maturity.

While some of these blockchain technologies are still nascent in their development, their associated risks often do not deter enthusiasts from adopting and promoting...